Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 01/11, 22:30
Prediction: Newell's vs Union Santa Fe
Team pages: Newell's · Union Santa Fe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Newell's1.43
Union Santa Fe0.89
1X2
Newell's
Draw
Union Santa Fe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Newell's
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Union Santa Fe
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newell's
2–2–2
Union Santa Fe
(6 last)
- Union Santa Fe2-3Newell's
- Newell's0-1Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe1-1Newell's
- Union Santa Fe2-0Newell's
- Union Santa Fe1-3Newell's
- Newell's1-1Union Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newell's 1546 · Union Santa Fe 1491
| Newell's | Draw | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newell's (rating 1546 vs 1491).
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newell's | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.1 | 1.1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newell's 2–2–2 Union Santa Fe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Newell's |
| 01/11/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Union Santa Fe |
| 19/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Newell's |
| 02/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Newell's |
| 09/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Newell's |
| 16/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 32 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 27 |
| 5 | Lanus | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 6 | Newell's | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 20 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 18 | 14 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 23 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newell's | Union Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Estudiantes LP | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Deportivo Riestra | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Newell's (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newell's
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/10 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 12/10 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 11/09 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 01/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Union Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 20/10 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 03/10 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newell's vs Union Santa Fe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newell's win (49%). Probabilities: Newell's 49%, draw 29%, Union Santa Fe 23%.
How many goals are expected in Newell's vs Union Santa Fe?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Newell's 1.43 · Union Santa Fe 0.89), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Newell's vs Union Santa Fe?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.