Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 23/08, 22:00
Prediction: Belgrano vs Defensa y Justicia
Team pages: Belgrano · Defensa y Justicia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Belgrano1.81
Defensa y Justicia0.9
1X2
Belgrano
Draw
Defensa y Justicia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Belgrano
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Defensa y Justicia
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Belgrano
2–2–2
Defensa y Justicia
(6 last)
- Defensa y Justicia1-1Belgrano
- Defensa y Justicia2-1Belgrano
- Belgrano2-0Defensa y Justicia
- Belgrano1-2Defensa y Justicia
- Belgrano1-1Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia0-2Belgrano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Belgrano 1562 · Defensa y Justicia 1447
| Belgrano | Draw | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 27% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belgrano (rating 1562 vs 1447).
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Belgrano | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.5 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.5 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Belgrano 2–2–2 Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
| 31/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Belgrano |
| 24/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 03/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 08/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 17/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Rosario Central | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Sarmiento | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Barracas Central | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Gimnasia LP | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Atlético Tucumán | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | CA Tigre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Huracan | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Independiente Rivadavia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Banfield | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | River Plate | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Aldosivi | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 24/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/07 | Racing Club Argentina Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Belgrano vs Defensa y Justicia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Belgrano win (57%). Probabilities: Belgrano 57%, draw 26%, Defensa y Justicia 17%.
How many goals are expected in Belgrano vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Belgrano 1.81 · Defensa y Justicia 0.9), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Belgrano vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.