Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 13/09, 22:00
Prediction: Newell's vs Velez Sarsfield
Team pages: Newell's · Velez Sarsfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.87Total
Newell's0.94
Velez Sarsfield0.94
1X2
Newell's
Draw
Velez Sarsfield
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Newell's
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Velez Sarsfield
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newell's
2–1–3
Velez Sarsfield
(6 last)
- Velez Sarsfield1-1Newell's
- Velez Sarsfield1-0Newell's
- Newell's1-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-1Newell's
- Newell's1-2Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield1-0Newell's
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newell's 1530 · Velez Sarsfield 1534
| Newell's | Draw | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 35% | 33% |
| Market | 34% | 32% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.87 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Velez Sarsfield: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newell's | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 33/56/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.1 | 3.1 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newell's 2–1–3 Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Newell's |
| 22/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Newell's |
| 04/02/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 03/09/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Newell's |
| 09/10/21 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 13/02/21 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Newell's |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | CA Independiente | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Newell's | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Boca Juniors | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Lanus | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Deportivo Riestra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 12 | Platense | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Estudiantes LP | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newell's | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes LP | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Riestra | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Defensa y Justicia | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Boca Juniors | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| CA Independiente | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 4 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Velez Sarsfield (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newell's
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 01/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 8 | L |
| 05/05 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newell's vs Velez Sarsfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newell's win (33%). Probabilities: Newell's 33%, draw 33%, Velez Sarsfield 33%.
How many goals are expected in Newell's vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model expects 1.87 goals (Newell's 0.94 · Velez Sarsfield 0.94), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Newell's vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.