Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 10/10, 02:45
Prediction: Union Santa Fe vs Defensa y Justicia
Team pages: Union Santa Fe · Defensa y Justicia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Union Santa Fe1.58
Defensa y Justicia1.18
1X2
Union Santa Fe
Draw
Defensa y Justicia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Santa Fe
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Defensa y Justicia
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Santa Fe
1–3–2
Defensa y Justicia
(6 last)
- Defensa y Justicia2-0Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe3-0Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia0-0Union Santa Fe
- Defensa y Justicia0-0Union Santa Fe
- Defensa y Justicia2-1Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe0-0Defensa y Justicia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe 1479 · Defensa y Justicia 1546
| Union Santa Fe | Draw | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 31% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensa y Justicia (rating 1479 vs 1546).
- H2H favours Defensa y Justicia: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Santa Fe | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.5 | 2.4 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe 1–3–2 Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 22/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 15/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 15/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 10/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Union Santa Fe |
| 24/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Lanus | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | Newell's | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 17 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 17 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Platense | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 8 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Santa Fe | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Central Cordoba | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Lanus | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Defensa y Justicia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 07/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe vs Defensa y Justicia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Santa Fe win (45%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe 45%, draw 29%, Defensa y Justicia 26%.
How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Union Santa Fe 1.58 · Defensa y Justicia 1.18), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.