Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 19/10, 01:15
Prediction: Belgrano vs River Plate
Team pages: Belgrano · River Plate
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Belgrano0.94
River Plate1.32
1X2
Belgrano
Draw
River Plate
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Belgrano
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
River Plate
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Belgrano
2–1–3
River Plate
(6 last)
- River Plate2-3Belgrano
- River Plate3-0Belgrano
- River Plate3-0Belgrano
- River Plate2-1Belgrano
- Belgrano2-1River Plate
- River Plate0-0Belgrano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Belgrano 1545 · River Plate 1526
| Belgrano | Draw | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| Market | 25% | 31% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours River Plate: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Belgrano | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.8 | 2.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Belgrano 2–1–3 River Plate
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Belgrano |
| 05/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Belgrano |
| 18/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Belgrano |
| 03/12/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
| 04/02/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 2-1 HT 1-0 | River Plate |
| 19/08/18 Argentina Superliga | River Plate | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Belgrano | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Gimnasia LP | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 22 |
| 5 | Sarmiento | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 20 |
| 6 | Huracan | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 19 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 19 |
| 8 | Barracas Central | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| 9 | River Plate | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 11 | CA Tigre | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Banfield | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 13 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 8 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Belgrano | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Sarmiento | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Huracan | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Atlético Tucumán | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Banfield | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| CA Tigre | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Belgrano (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Belgrano vs River Plate?
According to our model, the most likely result is an River Plate win (44%). Probabilities: Belgrano 25%, draw 31%, River Plate 44%.
How many goals are expected in Belgrano vs River Plate?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Belgrano 0.94 · River Plate 1.32), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Belgrano vs River Plate?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.