Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 18/10, 23:00
Prediction: Estudiantes LP vs San Lorenzo
Team pages: Estudiantes LP · San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.81Total
Estudiantes LP1.13
San Lorenzo0.68
1X2
Estudiantes LP
Draw
San Lorenzo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes LP
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
San Lorenzo
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes LP
0–5–1
San Lorenzo
(6 last)
- San Lorenzo1-0Estudiantes LP
- San Lorenzo1-1Estudiantes LP
- San Lorenzo1-1Estudiantes LP
- Estudiantes LP0-0San Lorenzo
- Estudiantes LP1-1San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-0Estudiantes LP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes LP 1485 · San Lorenzo 1481
| Estudiantes LP | Draw | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 34% | 21% |
| Market | 46% | 32% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes LP | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.9 | 1.1 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes LP 0–5–1 San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes LP |
| 05/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Estudiantes LP |
| 13/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Estudiantes LP |
| 20/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 22/06/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 1-1 HT 1-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 07/08/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes LP |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 29 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Lanus | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 7 | CA Independiente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 18 |
| 8 | Newell's | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 17 |
| 9 | Estudiantes LP | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 14 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 14 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 13 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| 13 | Platense | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes LP | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Riestra | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Boca Juniors | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Estudiantes LP (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes LP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 06/10 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/09 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 01/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 15/08 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 06/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 14/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes LP vs San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes LP win (46%). Probabilities: Estudiantes LP 46%, draw 33%, San Lorenzo 21%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes LP vs San Lorenzo?
The model expects 1.81 goals (Estudiantes LP 1.13 · San Lorenzo 0.68), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes LP vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.