Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 20/10, 00:00
Prediction: Sarmiento vs Barracas Central
Team pages: Sarmiento · Barracas Central
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Sarmiento1.36
Barracas Central1.05
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
Barracas Central
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Barracas Central
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
2–4–0
Barracas Central
(6 last)
- Barracas Central1-2Sarmiento
- Barracas Central0-1Sarmiento
- Sarmiento1-1Barracas Central
- Barracas Central1-1Sarmiento
- Sarmiento0-0Barracas Central
- Barracas Central1-1Sarmiento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1544 · Barracas Central 1476
| Sarmiento | Draw | Barracas Central | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 32% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarmiento (rating 1544 vs 1476).
- H2H favours Sarmiento: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | Barracas Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.4 | 1.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 2–4–0 Barracas Central
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Barracas Central | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Sarmiento |
| 20/09/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Barracas Central | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sarmiento |
| 09/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Barracas Central |
| 19/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Barracas Central | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sarmiento |
| 25/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Barracas Central |
| 02/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Barracas Central | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sarmiento |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Argentinos Jrs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Gimnasia LP | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 22 |
| 5 | Sarmiento | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 20 |
| 6 | Huracan | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 19 |
| 7 | Barracas Central | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 18 |
| 9 | River Plate | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 11 | Banfield | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 13 |
| 12 | CA Tigre | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 8 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 6 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Huracan | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Atlético Tucumán | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Banfield | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 19/09 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/07 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Barracas Central
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/09 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 15/09 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 08/09 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 01/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs Barracas Central?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarmiento win (42%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 42%, draw 31%, Barracas Central 27%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs Barracas Central?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Sarmiento 1.36 · Barracas Central 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs Barracas Central?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.