Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 18/10, 01:00

Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · Gimnasia Mendoza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Velez Sarsfield1.59

Gimnasia Mendoza0.98

1X2

50% 29% 21%

Velez Sarsfield Draw Gimnasia Mendoza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Velez Sarsfield 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDWDWD

Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDLDL

Head-to-head

Velez Sarsfield 0–1 Gimnasia Mendoza (1 last)

Gimnasia Mendoza3-2Velez Sarsfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1524 · Gimnasia Mendoza 1503

	Velez Sarsfield	Draw	Gimnasia Mendoza
Our model	50%	27%	22%
Market	49%	30%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Velez Sarsfield	Gimnasia Mendoza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.1	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +4’	1.90	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 0–0–1 Gimnasia Mendoza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia Mendoza	3-2 HT 1-2	Velez Sarsfield

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Instituto AC Cordoba	12	8	2	2	19	10	26
2	Defensa y Justicia	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
3	Boca Juniors	12	5	6	1	19	13	21
4	Velez Sarsfield	11	5	6	0	17	11	21
5	CA Independiente	12	5	3	4	11	12	18
6	Lanus	11	5	2	4	13	9	17
7	Newell's	11	4	5	2	11	8	17
8	Gimnasia Mendoza	11	5	2	4	14	12	17
9	Estudiantes LP	12	4	2	6	15	13	14
10	San Lorenzo	12	4	2	6	5	11	14
11	Union Santa Fe	12	4	1	7	17	21	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	2	5	5	9	12	11
13	Platense	12	2	5	5	12	18	11
14	Central Cordoba	12	2	4	6	10	16	10
15	CA Talleres de Córdoba	12	2	3	7	11	18	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Velez Sarsfield	Gimnasia Mendoza
Estudiantes LP	1-0 W	0-3 L
Deportivo Riestra	1-1 D	0-0 D
Defensa y Justicia	1-1 D	0-2 L
Boca Juniors	1-1 D	2-2 D
CA Independiente	1-0 W	3-0 W
CA Talleres de Córdoba	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Velez Sarsfield (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Velez Sarsfield

WWDDDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
21/09	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	3-2	2	0	W
11/09	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
06/09	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
24/08	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
18/08	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
09/08	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
04/08	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/07	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-1	–	–	W

Gimnasia Mendoza

LWLWWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
19/09	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
12/09	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
05/09	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
31/08	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
22/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-2	1	3	W
18/08	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-1	7	8	W
09/08	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
01/08	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
29/07	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (50%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 50%, draw 29%, Gimnasia Mendoza 21%.

How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.59 · Gimnasia Mendoza 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.