Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 26/10, 23:00

Prediction: Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes LP

Team pages: Union Santa Fe · Estudiantes LP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Union Santa Fe1.25

Estudiantes LP1.36

1X2

32% 30% 37%

Union Santa Fe Draw Estudiantes LP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Santa Fe 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLLLL

Estudiantes LP 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWLWDL

Head-to-head

Union Santa Fe 2–1–3 Estudiantes LP (6 last)

Estudiantes LP2-1Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe1-0Estudiantes LP
Estudiantes LP3-1Union Santa Fe
Estudiantes LP0-0Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe0-1Estudiantes LP
Estudiantes LP1-3Union Santa Fe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe 1472 · Estudiantes LP 1496

	Union Santa Fe	Draw	Estudiantes LP
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	32%	32%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Estudiantes LP: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Santa Fe	Estudiantes LP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.8	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X2.90

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.66
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.13 ★
2	2.50 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.83

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +5’	2.90	2.90	2.50
05:16 +5’	2.55▼	3.00▲	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:28 +49’	2.65	3.04	2.82
03:30 +49’	2.68▲	3.08▲	2.85▲
09:09 +10’	2.66▼	3.13▲	2.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe 2–1–3 Estudiantes LP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	2-1 HT 0-1	Union Santa Fe
15/07/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	1-0 HT 1-0	Estudiantes LP
25/01/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	3-1 HT 3-0	Union Santa Fe
21/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Santa Fe
02/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-1 HT 0-0	Estudiantes LP
26/08/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	1-3 HT 1-0	Union Santa Fe

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Instituto AC Cordoba	13	9	2	2	20	10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	6	6	1	21	14	24
3	Defensa y Justicia	13	7	3	3	18	12	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	13	6	6	1	18	13	24
5	Lanus	13	7	2	4	16	9	23
6	Newell's	13	5	5	3	13	10	20
7	Gimnasia Mendoza	13	6	2	5	15	13	20
8	CA Independiente	13	5	4	4	12	13	19
9	San Lorenzo	13	5	2	6	7	12	17
10	Estudiantes LP	13	4	2	7	16	15	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	18	22	14
12	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	10	13	12
13	Platense	13	2	5	6	12	19	11
14	Central Cordoba	13	2	4	7	11	18	10
15	CA Talleres de Córdoba	13	2	3	8	12	20	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Santa Fe	Estudiantes LP
Sarmiento	4-1 W	0-2 L
San Lorenzo	0-1 L	1-2 L
Central Cordoba	1-2 L	2-2 D
Lanus	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Union Santa Fe (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Santa Fe

WLLWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	0-2	6	8	L
03/10	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-3	1	7	L
19/09	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-2	6	6	L
13/09	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
08/09	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-2	2	7	W
29/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	4-1	2	3	W
21/08	CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/08	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	8	6	L
07/08	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

Estudiantes LP

LWLDLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
10/10	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
06/10	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	3-0	4	4	W
22/09	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
06/09	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
01/09	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
23/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	4-0	7	8	W
08/08	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	0	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes LP?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Estudiantes LP win (37%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe 32%, draw 30%, Estudiantes LP 37%.

How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes LP?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Union Santa Fe 1.25 · Estudiantes LP 1.36), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes LP?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.