Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 02/08, 05:10

Prediction: Tijuana (W) vs Monterrey (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Tijuana (W)1.17

Monterrey (W)1.55

1X2

28% 27% 45%

Tijuana (W) Draw Monterrey (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tijuana (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWDLWW

Monterrey (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Tijuana (W) 0–1–5 Monterrey (W) (6 last)

Monterrey (W)2-0Tijuana (W)
Tijuana (W)1-4Monterrey (W)
Monterrey (W)1-1Tijuana (W)
Tijuana (W)0-2Monterrey (W)
Monterrey (W)3-1Tijuana (W)
Monterrey (W)6-3Tijuana (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tijuana (W) 1517 · Monterrey (W) 1589

	Tijuana (W)	Draw	Monterrey (W)
Our model	28%	28%	45%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monterrey (W) (rating 1517 vs 1589).
H2H favours Monterrey (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tijuana (W)	Monterrey (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	2.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.30

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:03 +24’	3.25	3.30	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tijuana (W) 0–1–5 Monterrey (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Tijuana (W)
11/10/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Tijuana (W)	1-4 HT 0-2	Monterrey (W)
03/02/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Tijuana (W)
04/11/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Tijuana (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Monterrey (W)
29/03/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	3-1 HT 1-1	Tijuana (W)
14/11/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Monterrey (W)	6-3 HT 3-1	Tijuana (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Liga MX, Women 26/27, Apertura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atlas (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico San Luis (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pachuca (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club America (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Necaxa (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Puebla (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tijuana (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unam Pumas (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tijuana (W)	Monterrey (W)
Tigres UANL (W)	0-2 L	0-3 L
Chivas Guadalajara (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Unam Pumas (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Pachuca (W)	0-2 L	4-1 W
Cruz Azul (W)	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Monterrey (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tijuana (W)

DDWLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
06/04	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	6-1	8	7	W
03/04	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
30/03	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/03	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	3-0	5	6	W
18/03	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
13/03	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
22/02	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
15/02	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
11/02	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-2	4	9	D

Monterrey (W)

DWWDLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
15/05	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/05	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	4-1	5	2	W
03/05	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
30/04	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
25/04	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-3	7	0	L
06/04	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
02/04	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/03	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
21/03	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tijuana (W) vs Monterrey (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Monterrey (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Tijuana (W) 28%, draw 27%, Monterrey (W) 45%.

How many goals are expected in Tijuana (W) vs Monterrey (W)?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Tijuana (W) 1.17 · Monterrey (W) 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tijuana (W) vs Monterrey (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.