Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 02/08, 20:00
Prediction: Unam Pumas (W) vs Leon (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.38Total
Unam Pumas (W)2.25
Leon (W)1.13
1X2
Unam Pumas (W)
Draw
Leon (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Unam Pumas (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Leon (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Unam Pumas (W)
4–2
Leon (W)
(6 last)
- Unam Pumas (W)2-1Leon (W)
- Leon (W)2-0Unam Pumas (W)
- Leon (W)2-3Unam Pumas (W)
- Unam Pumas (W)2-0Leon (W)
- Leon (W)4-1Unam Pumas (W)
- Unam Pumas (W)2-1Leon (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Unam Pumas (W) 1454 · Leon (W) 1471
| Unam Pumas (W) | Draw | Leon (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Unam Pumas (W): 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Unam Pumas (W) | Leon (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 2.6 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.1 | 3.2 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Unam Pumas (W) 4–0–2 Leon (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Unam Pumas (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Leon (W) |
| 02/11/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Leon (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Unam Pumas (W) |
| 30/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Leon (W) | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Unam Pumas (W) |
| 06/07/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Unam Pumas (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Leon (W) |
| 09/01/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Leon (W) | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Unam Pumas (W) |
| 02/09/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Unam Pumas (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Leon (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Liga MX, Women 26/27, Apertura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pachuca (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Necaxa (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puebla (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tijuana (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unam Pumas (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Atlas (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Unam Pumas (W) | Leon (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Puebla (W) | 2-2 D | 6-0 W |
| Pachuca (W) | 1-2 L | 4-5 L |
| Tijuana (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Toluca (W) | 2-4 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Leon (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Unam Pumas (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 05/04 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 02/04 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 18/03 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 13/03 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/02 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/02 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 10/02 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Leon (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-3 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/04 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/03 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/03 | Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/02 | Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 17/02 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 6-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 10/02 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Unam Pumas (W) vs Leon (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Unam Pumas (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Unam Pumas (W) 61%, draw 21%, Leon (W) 17%.
How many goals are expected in Unam Pumas (W) vs Leon (W)?
The model expects 3.38 goals (Unam Pumas (W) 2.25 · Leon (W) 1.13), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Unam Pumas (W) vs Leon (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.