Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 03/08, 01:00
Prediction: Atletico San Luis (W) vs Toluca (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.55Total
Atletico San Luis (W)1.22
Toluca (W)2.33
1X2
Atletico San Luis (W)
Draw
Toluca (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico San Luis (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Toluca (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico San Luis (W)
1–1–4
Toluca (W)
(6 last)
- Toluca (W)4-0Atletico San Luis (W)
- Atletico San Luis (W)1-1Toluca (W)
- Atletico San Luis (W)1-0Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)4-0Atletico San Luis (W)
- Toluca (W)5-1Atletico San Luis (W)
- Atletico San Luis (W)0-1Toluca (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico San Luis (W) 1527 · Toluca (W) 1524
| Atletico San Luis (W) | Draw | Toluca (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Toluca (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico San Luis (W) | Toluca (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 2 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5 | 2.8 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.6 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico San Luis (W) 1–1–4 Toluca (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico San Luis (W) |
| 13/10/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Atletico San Luis (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Toluca (W) |
| 10/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Atletico San Luis (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca (W) |
| 02/11/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Atletico San Luis (W) |
| 12/03/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 5-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico San Luis (W) |
| 06/11/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Atletico San Luis (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Toluca (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Liga MX, Women 26/27, Apertura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pachuca (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Necaxa (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puebla (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tijuana (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unam Pumas (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Atlas (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico San Luis (W) | Toluca (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Leon (W) | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Mazatlan FC (W) | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Cruz Azul (W) | 3-2 W | 0-4 L |
| Tigres UANL (W) | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Necaxa (W) | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico San Luis (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 02/04 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 29/03 | Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/03 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 15/03 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/03 | Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/02 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-5 | 0-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/02 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 11/02 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
Toluca (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-4 | 1-7 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 05/04 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 01/04 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 3-3 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 5-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 17/03 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico San Luis (W) vs Toluca (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Atletico San Luis (W) 17%, draw 22%, Toluca (W) 61%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico San Luis (W) vs Toluca (W)?
The model expects 3.55 goals (Atletico San Luis (W) 1.22 · Toluca (W) 2.33), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico San Luis (W) vs Toluca (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.