Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 16/08, 01:00

Prediction: Pachuca (W) vs Unam Pumas (W)

Team pages: Pachuca (W) · Unam Pumas (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Pachuca (W)2.14

Unam Pumas (W)1.28

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Pachuca (W) Draw Unam Pumas (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Pachuca (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Unam Pumas (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pachuca (W) 4–2–0 Unam Pumas (W) (6 last)

Unam Pumas (W)1-2Pachuca (W)
Pachuca (W)1-1Unam Pumas (W)
Pachuca (W)1-1Unam Pumas (W)
Unam Pumas (W)0-2Pachuca (W)
Unam Pumas (W)1-2Pachuca (W)
Pachuca (W)2-1Unam Pumas (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pachuca (W) 1513 · Unam Pumas (W) 1447

	Pachuca (W)	Draw	Unam Pumas (W)
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pachuca (W) (rating 1513 vs 1447).
H2H favours Pachuca (W): 4-2-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pachuca (W)	Unam Pumas (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.51 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +61’	1.60	3.90	4.20
22:10 +24’	1.73▲	3.75▼	3.60▼
03:01 +8’	1.60▼	3.90▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:08	1.56	4.51	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca (W) 4–2–0 Unam Pumas (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Unam Pumas (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Pachuca (W)
01/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Unam Pumas (W)
13/03/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Unam Pumas (W)
10/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Unam Pumas (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Pachuca (W)
03/02/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Unam Pumas (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Pachuca (W)
11/09/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Pachuca (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Unam Pumas (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America (W)	2	2	0	0	13	0	6
2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	Unam Pumas (W)	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
4	Atletico San Luis (W)	2	1	0	1	3	5	3
5	Pachuca (W)	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
6	Atlas (W)	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
7	Tijuana (W)	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
8	Necaxa (W)	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
9	Puebla (W)	2	0	0	2	1	12	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pachuca (W)	Unam Pumas (W)
Monterrey (W)	1-4 L	0-3 L
Leon (W)	5-4 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pachuca (W) (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pachuca (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
21/05	Washington Spirit (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup	0-0	0-1	13	1	L
11/05	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
04/05	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
01/05	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	5	0	L
25/04	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	2-3	2	0	L
06/04	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-1	5-4	7	3	W
03/04	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	2-1	9	1	W
28/03	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-1	7	0	L

Unam Pumas (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
02/08	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-3	2-5	10	3	L
25/04	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
05/04	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
02/04	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
28/03	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
22/03	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
18/03	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
13/03	Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-4	5	3	L
21/02	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pachuca (W) vs Unam Pumas (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pachuca (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Pachuca (W) 56%, draw 23%, Unam Pumas (W) 21%.

How many goals are expected in Pachuca (W) vs Unam Pumas (W)?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Pachuca (W) 2.14 · Unam Pumas (W) 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pachuca (W) vs Unam Pumas (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.