Prediction: Toluca (W) vs Leon (W)
Team pages: Toluca (W) · Leon (W)
- Leon (W)3-3Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)1-0Leon (W)
- Leon (W)1-1Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)2-0Leon (W)
- Toluca (W)0-0Leon (W)
- Leon (W)0-1Toluca (W)
| Toluca (W) | Draw | Leon (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (W) (rating 1531 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Toluca (W): 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca (W) | Leon (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.1 | 2.3 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.6 | 2.9 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca (W) 3–3–0 Leon (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Leon (W) | 3-3 HT 3-0 | Toluca (W) |
| 10/08/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Leon (W) |
| 06/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Leon (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Toluca (W) |
| 24/09/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Leon (W) |
| 24/03/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Leon (W) |
| 17/10/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Leon (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Toluca (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Monterrey (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Leon (W) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 5 | Juarez FC (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
| 7 | Atlante (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
| 9 | Queretaro (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca (W) | Leon (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas (W) | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Atletico San Luis (W) | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Tigres UANL (W) | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/08 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-4 | 1-7 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 05/04 | Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
Leon (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/08 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-2 | 5-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-3 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/04 | Toluca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/03 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/03 | Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca (W) vs Leon (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Toluca (W) 59%, draw 21%, Leon (W) 20%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca (W) vs Leon (W)?
The model expects 4.09 goals (Toluca (W) 2.57 · Leon (W) 1.52), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca (W) vs Leon (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.