Prediction: Toluca (W) vs Tijuana (W)
Team pages: Toluca (W) · Tijuana (W)
- Toluca (W)5-3Tijuana (W)
- Tijuana (W)1-3Toluca (W)
- Tijuana (W)3-1Toluca (W)
- Toluca (W)2-4Tijuana (W)
- Toluca (W)2-1Tijuana (W)
- Tijuana (W)3-0Toluca (W)
| Toluca (W) | Draw | Tijuana (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (W) (rating 1543 vs 1488).
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca (W) | Tijuana (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.1 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.8 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca (W) 3–0–3 Tijuana (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 5-3 HT 2-1 | Tijuana (W) |
| 25/07/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Tijuana (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Toluca (W) |
| 18/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Tijuana (W) | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Toluca (W) |
| 07/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Tijuana (W) |
| 30/04/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Toluca (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Tijuana (W) |
| 21/08/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil | Tijuana (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Toluca (W) |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Atletico San Luis (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 12 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas (W) | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 9 |
| 5 | Atlas (W) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 8 |
| 6 | Pachuca (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 7 | Tijuana (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Puebla (W) | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 3 |
| 9 | Necaxa (W) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca (W) | Tijuana (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Monterrey (W) | 1-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Atlas (W) | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Atletico San Luis (W) | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Club America (W) | 3-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Tigres UANL (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 24/08 | Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/08 | Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-4 | 1-7 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Tijuana (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
3-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
5-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Mazatlan FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 06/04 | Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
1-0 | 6-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 03/04 | Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 30/03 | Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca (W) vs Tijuana (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Toluca (W) 63%, draw 20%, Tijuana (W) 17%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca (W) vs Tijuana (W)?
The model expects 3.92 goals (Toluca (W) 2.59 · Tijuana (W) 1.33), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca (W) vs Tijuana (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.