Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: Puebla (W) vs Juarez FC (W)

Team pages: Puebla (W) · Juarez FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Puebla (W)0.64

Juarez FC (W)2.64

1X2

6% 13% 81%

Puebla (W) Draw Juarez FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Puebla (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Juarez FC (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Puebla (W) 0–1–5 Juarez FC (W) (6 last)

Puebla (W)0-2Juarez FC (W)
Juarez FC (W)2-0Puebla (W)
Juarez FC (W)3-0Puebla (W)
Puebla (W)2-4Juarez FC (W)
Puebla (W)3-3Juarez FC (W)
Juarez FC (W)3-0Puebla (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Puebla (W) 1394 · Juarez FC (W) 1582

	Puebla (W)	Draw	Juarez FC (W)
Our model	6%	15%	79%
Market	6%	12%	82%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juarez FC (W) (rating 1394 vs 1582).
H2H favours Juarez FC (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Puebla (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.1	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

115.00

X7.50

21.13

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.93

2 (-2.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
X	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 7.72 ★
2	1.13 → 1.13	Pinn 1.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:02 +39’	15.00	7.50	1.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:38 +62’	14.42	7.72	1.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla (W) 0–1–5 Juarez FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Puebla (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Juarez FC (W)
19/07/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Puebla (W)
07/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Puebla (W)
03/11/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Puebla (W)	2-4 HT 1-4	Juarez FC (W)
21/04/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Puebla (W)	3-3 HT 1-3	Juarez FC (W)
15/09/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Juarez FC (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Puebla (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America (W)	12	10	1	1	54	12	31
2	Chivas Guadalajara (W)	12	9	0	3	29	11	27
3	Atletico San Luis (W)	12	6	1	5	24	25	19
4	Unam Pumas (W)	12	5	2	5	20	18	17
5	Atlas (W)	12	4	4	4	13	20	16
6	Pachuca (W)	12	4	1	7	20	17	13
7	Tijuana (W)	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
8	Puebla (W)	12	1	1	10	15	42	4
9	Necaxa (W)	12	0	0	12	3	50	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Puebla (W)	Juarez FC (W)
Tijuana (W)	1-1 D	5-1 W
Santos Laguna (W)	0-1 L	3-2 W
Queretaro (W)	2-6 L	2-1 W
Leon (W)	2-5 L	2-0 W
Necaxa (W)	4-1 W	1-0 W
Atletico San Luis (W)	2-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Juarez FC (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Puebla (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
17/10	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-1	1	9	D
03/10	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
27/09	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/09	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
13/09	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	2-6	4	4	L
08/09	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-3	2-5	6	3	L
30/08	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	4-0	4-1	6	6	W
23/08	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	2-5	4	3	L
15/08	Club America (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-3	1-5	0	6	L

Juarez FC (W)

LWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Queretaro (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
19/10	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
05/10	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
27/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	5-1	2	3	W
22/09	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
13/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
08/09	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
30/08	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
23/08	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	2-1	3-2	8	4	W
16/08	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Puebla (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Juarez FC (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Puebla (W) 6%, draw 13%, Juarez FC (W) 81%.

How many goals are expected in Puebla (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Puebla (W) 0.64 · Juarez FC (W) 2.64), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Puebla (W) vs Juarez FC (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.