Football · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · 06/11, 02:06

Prediction: Queretaro (W) vs Toluca (W)

Team pages: Queretaro (W) · Toluca (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.83Total

Queretaro (W)0.97

Toluca (W)2.87

1X2

10% 14% 76%

Queretaro (W) Draw Toluca (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Queretaro (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLL

Toluca (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Queretaro (W) 3–3 Toluca (W) (6 last)

Queretaro (W)1-4Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)2-0Queretaro (W)
Toluca (W)1-2Queretaro (W)
Queretaro (W)1-0Toluca (W)
Toluca (W)1-2Queretaro (W)
Queretaro (W)1-2Toluca (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queretaro (W) 1389 · Toluca (W) 1544

	Queretaro (W)	Draw	Toluca (W)
Our model	9%	15%	76%
Market	10%	13%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (W) (rating 1389 vs 1544).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queretaro (W)	Toluca (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.6	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

19.00

X7.00

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.80

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00
X	6.00 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00
2	1.22 → 1.20▼	Pinn 1.32 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +7’	8.50	6.00	1.22
22:41 +10’	9.00▲	7.00▲	1.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +6’	7.57	5.90	1.30
21:49 +4’	6.89▼	5.63▼	1.34▲
22:43 +7’	7.18▲	5.75▲	1.32▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queretaro (W) 3–0–3 Toluca (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/01/26 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Queretaro (W)	1-4 HT 1-1	Toluca (W)
01/09/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Queretaro (W)
21/01/25 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Queretaro (W)
19/08/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Queretaro (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Toluca (W)
11/04/24 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Toluca (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Queretaro (W)
02/09/23 Mexico Liga MX Femenil	Queretaro (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Toluca (W)

Standings · Mexico Liga MX Femenil · Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monterrey (W)	13	11	1	1	48	15	34
2	Tigres UANL (W)	13	10	2	1	43	12	32
3	Juarez FC (W)	13	10	0	3	20	10	30
4	Toluca (W)	13	8	2	3	29	20	26
5	Leon (W)	13	7	1	5	21	19	22
6	Santos Laguna (W)	13	6	1	6	17	23	19
7	Cruz Azul (W)	13	6	0	7	17	25	18
8	Atlante (W)	13	2	1	10	6	22	7
9	Queretaro (W)	13	2	0	11	11	31	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queretaro (W)	Toluca (W)
Pachuca (W)	0-5 L	2-1 W
Tigres UANL (W)	0-2 L	2-7 L
Atlante (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Cruz Azul (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Monterrey (W)	0-4 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Toluca (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queretaro (W)

LLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
25/10	Juarez FC (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
19/10	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/10	Atletico San Luis (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
26/09	Atlas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
21/09	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
13/09	Puebla (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	6-2	10	4	W
07/09	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
30/08	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-2	0-4	6	4	L
22/08	Unam Pumas (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-5	0-5	2	1	L

Toluca (W)

WWLWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chivas Guadalajara (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
25/10	Cruz Azul (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/10	Santos Laguna (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
05/10	Pachuca (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
29/09	Necaxa (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
22/09	Tigres UANL (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	1-5	2-7	3	5	L
15/09	Tijuana (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	3-0	6-0	4	3	W
06/09	Monterrey (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
29/08	Leon (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
24/08	Atlante (W) Mexico Liga MX Femenil	0-0	2-1	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queretaro (W) vs Toluca (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca (W) win (76%). Probabilities: Queretaro (W) 10%, draw 14%, Toluca (W) 76%.

How many goals are expected in Queretaro (W) vs Toluca (W)?

The model expects 3.83 goals (Queretaro (W) 0.97 · Toluca (W) 2.87), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Queretaro (W) vs Toluca (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.