Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 18/10, 01:00

Prediction: Atlético Tucumán vs Rosario Central

Team pages: Atlético Tucumán · Rosario Central

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Atlético Tucumán0.9

Rosario Central1.21

1X2

26% 32% 42%

Atlético Tucumán Draw Rosario Central

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlético Tucumán 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWLLLD

Rosario Central 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Atlético Tucumán 0–3–3 Rosario Central (6 last)

Rosario Central2-1Atlético Tucumán
Atlético Tucumán0-0Rosario Central
Rosario Central3-1Atlético Tucumán
Rosario Central1-0Atlético Tucumán
Atlético Tucumán1-1Rosario Central
Rosario Central0-0Atlético Tucumán

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlético Tucumán 1476 · Rosario Central 1570

	Atlético Tucumán	Draw	Rosario Central
Our model	26%	32%	42%
Market	26%	32%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rosario Central (rating 1476 vs 1570).
H2H favours Rosario Central: 3-3-0.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlético Tucumán	Rosario Central
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6	3.1 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X2.90

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.97
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.46 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +10’	3.60	2.90	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +481’	3.27	2.97	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlético Tucumán 0–3–3 Rosario Central

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Rosario Central	2-1 HT 1-1	Atlético Tucumán
10/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Atlético Tucumán	0-0 HT 0-0	Rosario Central
08/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Rosario Central	3-1 HT 1-0	Atlético Tucumán
26/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Rosario Central	1-0 HT 0-0	Atlético Tucumán
26/01/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Atlético Tucumán	1-1 HT 0-1	Rosario Central
20/08/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Rosario Central	0-0 HT 0-0	Atlético Tucumán

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rosario Central	12	6	4	2	17	9	22
2	Belgrano	12	6	4	2	14	7	22
3	Argentinos Jrs	12	6	4	2	16	11	22
4	Sarmiento	11	6	1	4	20	17	19
5	Huracan	12	5	4	3	11	10	19
6	Gimnasia LP	12	5	4	3	17	17	19
7	Barracas Central	12	5	3	4	10	9	18
8	Independiente Rivadavia	12	5	3	4	15	19	18
9	River Plate	11	5	1	5	14	12	16
10	Atlético Tucumán	12	3	5	4	10	10	14
11	Banfield	12	3	4	5	14	18	13
12	CA Tigre	12	3	3	6	11	13	12
13	Racing Club	12	3	2	7	13	19	11
14	CA Aldosivi	12	2	2	8	13	20	8
15	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	12	1	3	8	6	16	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlético Tucumán	Rosario Central
Gimnasia LP	1-1 D	1-2 L
Barracas Central	2-3 L	1-0 W
CA Aldosivi	0-1 L	2-1 W
River Plate	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rosario Central (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlético Tucumán

DLWDDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
03/10	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
21/09	CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
12/09	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
07/09	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
30/08	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/08	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
17/08	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
08/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-2	13	2	L
04/08	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Rosario Central

WWWDLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	5-0	9	5	W
06/10	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
20/09	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
13/09	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
06/09	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	10	9	D
29/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-2	10	5	L
25/08	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	10	8	D
17/08	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
08/08	CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	10	1	W
03/08	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlético Tucumán vs Rosario Central?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rosario Central win (42%). Probabilities: Atlético Tucumán 26%, draw 32%, Rosario Central 42%.

How many goals are expected in Atlético Tucumán vs Rosario Central?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Atlético Tucumán 0.9 · Rosario Central 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlético Tucumán vs Rosario Central?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.