Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 25/10, 21:00
Prediction: CA Independiente vs Boca Juniors
Team pages: CA Independiente · Boca Juniors
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
CA Independiente0.91
Boca Juniors1.42
1X2
CA Independiente
Draw
Boca Juniors
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Boca Juniors
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente
1–4–1
Boca Juniors
(6 last)
- Boca Juniors1-1CA Independiente
- Boca Juniors0-1CA Independiente
- Boca Juniors0-0CA Independiente
- CA Independiente0-2Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors0-0CA Independiente
- Boca Juniors2-2CA Independiente
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente 1488 · Boca Juniors 1583
| CA Independiente | Draw | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 30% | 48% |
| Market | 23% | 30% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1488 vs 1583).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.7 | 3.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente 1–4–1 Boca Juniors
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-1 HT 1-1 | CA Independiente |
| 20/05/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 14/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 29/07/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 08/01/23 Club Friendly List | Boca Juniors | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 23/10/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 2-2 HT 1-1 | CA Independiente |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 29 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Lanus | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Newell's | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Estudiantes LP | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 14 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Platense | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 9 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Union Santa Fe | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| San Lorenzo | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Central Cordoba | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Lanus | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Platense | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 3 L | 5 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 12/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 17/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 4 | L |
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Boca Juniors win (48%). Probabilities: CA Independiente 23%, draw 30%, Boca Juniors 48%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
The model expects 2.33 goals (CA Independiente 0.91 · Boca Juniors 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente vs Boca Juniors?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.