Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 25/10, 00:15
Prediction: San Lorenzo vs Newell's
Team pages: San Lorenzo · Newell's
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.65Total
San Lorenzo0.88
Newell's0.77
1X2
San Lorenzo
Draw
Newell's
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 50%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
San Lorenzo
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Newell's
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Lorenzo
0–4–2
Newell's
(6 last)
- Newell's0-0San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo1-1Newell's
- Newell's2-2San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-3Newell's
- Newell's1-0San Lorenzo
- Newell's0-0San Lorenzo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Lorenzo 1492 · Newell's 1536
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Newell's | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 37% | 28% |
| Market | 37% | 33% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.65 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newell's (rating 1492 vs 1536).
- H2H favours Newell's: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Lorenzo | Newell's | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.8 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo 0–4–2 Newell's
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 27/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Newell's |
| 04/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Newell's | 2-2 HT 2-2 | San Lorenzo |
| 07/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Newell's |
| 20/03/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 10/06/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 29 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Lanus | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 7 | CA Independiente | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 19 |
| 8 | Newell's | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 17 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 17 |
| 10 | Estudiantes LP | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 13 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| 13 | Platense | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Lorenzo | Newell's |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes LP | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Riestra | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Defensa y Justicia | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Boca Juniors | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Newell's (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 14/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Newell's
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 11/09 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 01/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo vs Newell's?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Lorenzo win (36%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo 36%, draw 35%, Newell's 29%.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo vs Newell's?
The model expects 1.65 goals (San Lorenzo 0.88 · Newell's 0.77), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Newell's?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.