Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 17/10, 22:30
Prediction: Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Tigre
Team pages: Independiente Rivadavia · CA Tigre
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Independiente Rivadavia1.46
CA Tigre0.77
1X2
Independiente Rivadavia
Draw
CA Tigre
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Rivadavia
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
CA Tigre
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Rivadavia
4–1–1
CA Tigre
(6 last)
- Independiente Rivadavia1-0CA Tigre
- CA Tigre0-2Independiente Rivadavia
- CA Tigre1-3Independiente Rivadavia
- CA Tigre1-1Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia1-4CA Tigre
- CA Tigre0-2Independiente Rivadavia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Rivadavia 1524 · CA Tigre 1429
| Independiente Rivadavia | Draw | CA Tigre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | 52% | 29% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Rivadavia (rating 1524 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Independiente Rivadavia: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Rivadavia | CA Tigre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.4 | 2.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Rivadavia 4–1–1 CA Tigre
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Argentina Cup | Independiente Rivadavia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CA Tigre |
| 02/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 06/09/25 Argentina Cup | CA Tigre | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 23/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 15/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 1-4 HT 0-2 | CA Tigre |
| 09/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente Rivadavia |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Argentinos Jrs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Sarmiento | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 19 |
| 5 | Huracan | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Gimnasia LP | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
| 7 | Barracas Central | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 18 |
| 9 | River Plate | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 11 | Banfield | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 13 |
| 12 | CA Tigre | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 8 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Rivadavia | CA Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 0-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Gimnasia LP | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Barracas Central | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CA Aldosivi | 4-3 W | 0-0 D |
| River Plate | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Belgrano | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/09 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 31/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
CA Tigre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 05/10 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 13/09 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 01/09 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Tigre?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Rivadavia win (52%). Probabilities: Independiente Rivadavia 52%, draw 29%, CA Tigre 19%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Tigre?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Independiente Rivadavia 1.46 · CA Tigre 0.77), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Tigre?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.