Football · Brazil Serie B · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: Gremio Novorizontino vs EC Juventude

Team pages: Gremio Novorizontino · EC Juventude

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Gremio Novorizontino1.2

EC Juventude0.81

1X2

44% 31% 24%

Gremio Novorizontino Draw EC Juventude

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio Novorizontino 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLLLW

EC Juventude 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

Gremio Novorizontino 2–1–1 EC Juventude (4 last)

EC Juventude0-0Gremio Novorizontino
EC Juventude0-2Gremio Novorizontino
EC Juventude1-0Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino1-0EC Juventude

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio Novorizontino 1549 · EC Juventude 1556

	Gremio Novorizontino	Draw	EC Juventude
Our model	44%	33%	24%
Market	45%	31%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio Novorizontino	EC Juventude
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.00

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.75

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.07
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.06
2	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.05 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +1’	2.05	3.00	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	2.07	3.06	4.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 2–1–1 EC Juventude

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
29/03/26 Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	EC Juventude	0-2 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
03/08/23 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	1-0 HT 1-0	Gremio Novorizontino
22/04/23 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	1-0 HT 1-0	EC Juventude

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	11	7	2	23	12	40
2	EC Juventude	20	10	5	5	22	12	35
3	Operario PR	20	10	5	5	28	25	35
4	Fortaleza	20	10	4	6	23	19	34
5	Vila Nova	20	10	4	6	27	24	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	20	9	6	5	32	19	33
7	Atletico GO	20	8	7	5	23	20	31
8	CRB	20	8	5	7	31	32	29
9	Goias	20	8	5	7	21	26	29
10	Sport Recife	20	6	11	3	25	19	29
11	Athletic Club MG	20	6	10	4	19	18	28
12	Sao Bernardo SP	20	7	6	7	28	23	27
13	Nautico	20	7	4	9	24	24	25
14	Cuiaba	20	5	10	5	15	15	25
15	Botafogo SP	20	6	6	8	24	21	24
16	Ceara	20	5	7	8	20	25	22
17	Londrina	20	5	5	10	27	31	20
18	Avai	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
19	America MG	20	2	5	13	14	31	11
20	Ponte Preta	20	2	3	15	15	39	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio Novorizontino	EC Juventude
Operario PR	1-2 L	1-2 L
Vila Nova	2-1 W	1-0 W
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	3-0 W
Nautico	2-2 D	0-0 D
Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: EC Juventude (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gremio Novorizontino

DWDWWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	3-1	4-1	10	3	W
22/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
12/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
04/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
27/06	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
23/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
15/06	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
11/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	4-0	4	4	W
31/05	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	1	5	D

EC Juventude

LWWWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Atletico Mineiro Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
29/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-4	9	4	L
18/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
11/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
28/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
21/06	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
14/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
06/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio Novorizontino vs EC Juventude?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio Novorizontino win (44%). Probabilities: Gremio Novorizontino 44%, draw 31%, EC Juventude 24%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio Novorizontino vs EC Juventude?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Gremio Novorizontino 1.2 · EC Juventude 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio Novorizontino vs EC Juventude?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.