Football · Brazil Serie B · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: Nautico vs Atletico GO

Team pages: Nautico · Atletico GO

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Nautico1.29

Atletico GO1.01

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Nautico Draw Atletico GO

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nautico 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLLWD

Atletico GO 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Nautico 2–1–3 Atletico GO (6 last)

Atletico GO1-2Nautico
Nautico2-1Atletico GO
Atletico GO3-0Nautico
Nautico1-1Atletico GO
Atletico GO2-0Nautico
Nautico1-2Atletico GO

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nautico 1458 · Atletico GO 1538

	Nautico	Draw	Atletico GO
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico GO (rating 1458 vs 1538).
H2H favours Atletico GO: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nautico	Atletico GO
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.5	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.21
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.30 ★
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +1’	2.20	3.10	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	2.21	3.30	3.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nautico 2–1–3 Atletico GO

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	1-2 HT 1-0	Nautico
29/10/16 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico GO
02/07/16 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	3-0 HT 2-0	Nautico
16/09/15 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico GO
13/06/15 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	2-0 HT 1-0	Nautico
25/10/14 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	1-2 HT 0-1	Atletico GO

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	11	7	2	23	12	40
2	EC Juventude	20	10	5	5	22	12	35
3	Operario PR	20	10	5	5	28	25	35
4	Fortaleza	20	10	4	6	23	19	34
5	Vila Nova	20	10	4	6	27	24	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	20	9	6	5	32	19	33
7	Atletico GO	20	8	7	5	23	20	31
8	CRB	20	8	5	7	31	32	29
9	Goias	20	8	5	7	21	26	29
10	Sport Recife	20	6	11	3	25	19	29
11	Athletic Club MG	20	6	10	4	19	18	28
12	Sao Bernardo SP	20	7	6	7	28	23	27
13	Nautico	20	7	4	9	24	24	25
14	Cuiaba	20	5	10	5	15	15	25
15	Botafogo SP	20	6	6	8	24	21	24
16	Ceara	20	5	7	8	20	25	22
17	Londrina	20	5	5	10	27	31	20
18	Avai	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
19	America MG	20	2	5	13	14	31	11
20	Ponte Preta	20	2	3	15	15	39	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nautico	Atletico GO
CRB	1-2 L	3-3 D
Goias	0-1 L	1-1 D
Gremio Novorizontino	2-2 D	0-3 L
Fortaleza	0-1 L	1-0 W
Sport Recife	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico GO (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nautico

LLDLLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
17/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
12/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
06/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
21/06	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-4	3-4	10	4	L
15/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
10/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	11	8	L
31/05	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	8	8	L

Atletico GO

DWDDWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
24/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
18/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
12/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
04/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
28/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
19/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/06	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-3	3-3	13	7	D
09/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	1	W
30/05	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	9	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nautico vs Atletico GO?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nautico win (42%). Probabilities: Nautico 42%, draw 30%, Atletico GO 28%.

How many goals are expected in Nautico vs Atletico GO?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Nautico 1.29 · Atletico GO 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nautico vs Atletico GO?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.