Football · Brazil Serie B · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: Athletic Club MG vs Criciuma

Team pages: Athletic Club MG · Criciuma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.68Total

Athletic Club MG0.71

Criciuma0.97

1X2

26% 34% 40%

Athletic Club MG Draw Criciuma

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Club MG 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLDDWD

Criciuma 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Athletic Club MG 0–2–1 Criciuma (3 last)

Criciuma1-1Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG1-1Criciuma
Criciuma4-0Athletic Club MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Club MG 1496 · Criciuma 1586

	Athletic Club MG	Draw	Criciuma
Our model	24%	36%	39%
Market	27%	32%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 1.68 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Criciuma (rating 1496 vs 1586).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Club MG	Criciuma
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X2.90

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.97
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.47 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	3.50	2.90	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	3.20	2.97	2.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 0–2–1 Criciuma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	1-1 HT 0-1	Athletic Club MG
19/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	1-1 HT 0-1	Criciuma
18/04/25 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	4-0 HT 3-0	Athletic Club MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	11	7	2	23	12	40
2	EC Juventude	20	10	5	5	22	12	35
3	Operario PR	20	10	5	5	28	25	35
4	Fortaleza	20	10	4	6	23	19	34
5	Vila Nova	20	10	4	6	27	24	34
6	Gremio Novorizontino	20	9	6	5	32	19	33
7	Atletico GO	20	8	7	5	23	20	31
8	CRB	20	8	5	7	31	32	29
9	Goias	20	8	5	7	21	26	29
10	Sport Recife	20	6	11	3	25	19	29
11	Athletic Club MG	20	6	10	4	19	18	28
12	Sao Bernardo SP	20	7	6	7	28	23	27
13	Nautico	20	7	4	9	24	24	25
14	Cuiaba	20	5	10	5	15	15	25
15	Botafogo SP	20	6	6	8	24	21	24
16	Ceara	20	5	7	8	20	25	22
17	Londrina	20	5	5	10	27	31	20
18	Avai	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
19	America MG	20	2	5	13	14	31	11
20	Ponte Preta	20	2	3	15	15	39	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Club MG	Criciuma
Ponte Preta	1-1 D	2-1 W
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	1-0 W
Ceara	0-0 D	1-1 D
Avai	1-0 W	2-1 W
Londrina	0-2 L	1-0 W
Sport Recife	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Criciuma (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

WDDLWLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
24/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
14/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
08/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/06	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
14/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
11/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/05	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	1	W

Criciuma

WWDWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
18/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
09/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
04/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
27/06	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
24/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
16/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
06/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
30/05	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Club MG vs Criciuma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Criciuma win (40%). Probabilities: Athletic Club MG 26%, draw 34%, Criciuma 40%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club MG vs Criciuma?

The model expects 1.68 goals (Athletic Club MG 0.71 · Criciuma 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club MG vs Criciuma?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.