Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 31/07, 23:00
Prediction: Portuguesa vs Carabobo
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Portuguesa1.04
Carabobo1.4
1X2
Portuguesa
Draw
Carabobo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Portuguesa
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Carabobo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Portuguesa
0–4–2
Carabobo
(6 last)
- Carabobo0-0Portuguesa
- Carabobo5-0Portuguesa
- Portuguesa1-1Carabobo
- Portuguesa0-0Carabobo
- Carabobo0-0Portuguesa
- Carabobo1-0Portuguesa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portuguesa 1507 · Carabobo 1548
| Portuguesa | Draw | Carabobo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 30% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carabobo (rating 1507 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Carabobo: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 13 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portuguesa | Carabobo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.4 / 2.6 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.7 / 0.2 | 6.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portuguesa 0–4–2 Carabobo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Portuguesa |
| 27/08/25 Venezuela Cup | Carabobo | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Portuguesa |
| 20/08/25 Venezuela Cup | Portuguesa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Carabobo |
| 12/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Portuguesa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Carabobo |
| 03/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Portuguesa |
| 29/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Portuguesa |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carabobo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caracas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estudiantes Merida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monagas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portuguesa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trujillanos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UCV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Portuguesa | Carabobo |
|---|---|---|
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Estudiantes Merida | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Carabobo (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portuguesa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 11/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 05/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
Carabobo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 28/05 | Bragantino Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/05 | Blooming Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 14/05 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | River Plate Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 04/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Portuguesa vs Carabobo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Carabobo win (44%). Probabilities: Portuguesa 26%, draw 30%, Carabobo 44%.
How many goals are expected in Portuguesa vs Carabobo?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Portuguesa 1.04 · Carabobo 1.4), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Portuguesa vs Carabobo?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.