Football · Brazil Copa Sergipe · 29/07, 21:00

Prediction: Falcon vs AA Guarany

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Falcon1.45

AA Guarany0.58

1X2

59% 25% 16%

Falcon Draw AA Guarany

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Falcon 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWLWWL

AA Guarany 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLWLDD

Head-to-head

Falcon 1–1–2 AA Guarany (4 last)

AA Guarany0-1Falcon
AA Guarany0-0Falcon
Falcon0-1AA Guarany
AA Guarany2-0Falcon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Falcon 1474 · AA Guarany 1505

	Falcon	Draw	AA Guarany
Our model	57%	29%	14%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AA Guarany: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Falcon	AA Guarany
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +1’	1.48	4.10	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Falcon 1–1–2 AA Guarany

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	AA Guarany	0-1 HT 0-0	Falcon
09/08/25 Brazil Copa Sergipe	AA Guarany	0-0 HT 0-0	Falcon
02/08/25 Brazil Copa Sergipe	Falcon	0-1 HT 0-1	AA Guarany
15/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	AA Guarany	2-0 HT 0-0	Falcon

Standings · Brazil Copa Sergipe

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AA Guarany	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Gloriense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	America FC Propria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Desportiva Aracaju	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Falcon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lagarto	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Falcon	AA Guarany
Itabaiana	0-1 L	1-1 D
Desportiva Aracaju	2-0 W	2-1 W
America FC Propria	1-2 L	0-0 D
Atletico Gloriense	2-1 W	3-2 W
Dorense	0-1 L	3-1 W
CS Sergipe	0-2 L	1-1 D
AD Confianca	0-0 D	0-0 D
Lagarto	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AA Guarany (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Falcon

DLDLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/02	Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
14/02	Desportiva Aracaju Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/02	AA Guarany Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
07/02	America FC Propria Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	1-2	5	9	L
03/02	Atletico Gloriense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
31/01	Dorense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
24/01	CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
22/01	AD Confianca Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
17/01	Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
10/01	Lagarto Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	2-2	4	5	D

AA Guarany

WDLDWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/02	AD Confianca Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
14/02	Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
11/02	Falcon Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
08/02	Desportiva Aracaju Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
06/02	AD Confianca Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
31/01	Atletico Gloriense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-0	3-2	1	1	W
25/01	America FC Propria Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
22/01	Lagarto Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-2	0-2	7	11	L
17/01	CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
11/01	Dorense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	3-1	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Falcon vs AA Guarany?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Falcon win (59%). Probabilities: Falcon 59%, draw 25%, AA Guarany 16%.

How many goals are expected in Falcon vs AA Guarany?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Falcon 1.45 · AA Guarany 0.58), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Falcon vs AA Guarany?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.