Prediction: Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju
Team pages: Falcon · Desportiva Aracaju
- Falcon2-0Desportiva Aracaju
| Falcon | Draw | Desportiva Aracaju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 25% | 13% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Falcon (rating 1522 vs 1443).
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Falcon | Desportiva Aracaju | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.3 | 1.6 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 6 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Falcon 1–0–0 Desportiva Aracaju
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano | Falcon | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Desportiva Aracaju |
Standings · Brazil Copa Sergipe
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Desportiva Aracaju | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Lagarto | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atletico Gloriense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | AA Guarany | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 6 | America FC Propria | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Falcon | Desportiva Aracaju |
|---|---|---|
| Lagarto | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| AA Guarany | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Itabaiana | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| America FC Propria | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Atletico Gloriense | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Dorense | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| CS Sergipe | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Falcon (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Falcon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Lagarto Brazil Copa Sergipe |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/07 | AA Guarany Brazil Copa Sergipe |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/02 | Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 14/02 | Desportiva Aracaju Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/02 | AA Guarany Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 07/02 | America FC Propria Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 03/02 | Atletico Gloriense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 31/01 | Dorense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/01 | CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 22/01 | AD Confianca Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
Desportiva Aracaju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | America FC Propria Brazil Copa Sergipe |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/07 | Atletico Gloriense Brazil Copa Sergipe |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 10 | D |
| 14/02 | Falcon Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/02 | Lagarto Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 08/02 | AA Guarany Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 05/02 | CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/01 | America FC Propria Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/01 | Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 22/01 | Dorense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/01 | Atletico Gloriense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 10 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Falcon win (63%). Probabilities: Falcon 63%, draw 23%, Desportiva Aracaju 14%.
How many goals are expected in Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Falcon 1.77 · Desportiva Aracaju 0.69), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Falcon vs Desportiva Aracaju?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.