Football · Brazil Copa Sergipe · 05/08, 20:15

Prediction: America FC Propria vs Atletico Gloriense

Team pages: America FC Propria · Atletico Gloriense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

America FC Propria1.09

Atletico Gloriense1.38

1X2

29% 29% 42%

America FC Propria Draw Atletico Gloriense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

America FC Propria 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDDLLL

Atletico Gloriense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLWDD

Head-to-head

America FC Propria 3–2–0 Atletico Gloriense (5 last)

America FC Propria2-0Atletico Gloriense
America FC Propria2-1Atletico Gloriense
Atletico Gloriense1-1America FC Propria
Atletico Gloriense0-4America FC Propria
America FC Propria0-0Atletico Gloriense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America FC Propria 1481 · Atletico Gloriense 1494

	America FC Propria	Draw	Atletico Gloriense
Our model	28%	29%	42%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours America FC Propria: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America FC Propria	Atletico Gloriense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.8	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.4	6.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:34 +3’	3.10	3.10	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America FC Propria 3–2–0 Atletico Gloriense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	America FC Propria	2-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Gloriense
23/03/24 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	America FC Propria	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Gloriense
17/03/24 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Atletico Gloriense	1-1 HT 0-0	America FC Propria
02/03/24 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	Atletico Gloriense	0-4 HT 0-1	America FC Propria
26/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	America FC Propria	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Gloriense

Standings · Brazil Copa Sergipe

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Falcon	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
2	Desportiva Aracaju	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Lagarto	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
4	Atletico Gloriense	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
5	AA Guarany	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
6	America FC Propria	2	0	0	2	2	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America FC Propria	Atletico Gloriense
Desportiva Aracaju	2-3 L	0-0 D
Lagarto	0-1 L	2-1 W
CS Sergipe	1-1 D	1-2 L
AD Confianca	0-0 D	2-1 W
Falcon	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Gloriense (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

America FC Propria

WLDDWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Desportiva Aracaju Brazil Copa Sergipe	0-1	2-3	1	5	L
30/07	Lagarto Brazil Copa Sergipe	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
08/03	Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
01/03	CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
27/02	CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
22/02	Lagarto Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
19/02	CEFAT Tirol Copa do Brasil	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
14/02	AD Confianca Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
11/02	Itabaiana Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-3	0-3	2	8	L
07/02	Falcon Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	2-1	7	9	W

Atletico Gloriense

DLWLLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	AA Guarany Brazil Copa Sergipe	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
29/07	Desportiva Aracaju Brazil Copa Sergipe	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
14/02	Dorense Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
11/02	CS Sergipe Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-0	1-2	3	10	L
07/02	Lagarto Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-0	2-1	3	9	W
03/02	Falcon Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
31/01	AA Guarany Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-1	2-3	3	1	L
24/01	AD Confianca Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
21/01	America FC Propria Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
18/01	Desportiva Aracaju Brazil Campeonato Sergipano	1-1	1-1	8	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America FC Propria vs Atletico Gloriense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Gloriense win (42%). Probabilities: America FC Propria 29%, draw 29%, Atletico Gloriense 42%.

How many goals are expected in America FC Propria vs Atletico Gloriense?

The model expects 2.47 goals (America FC Propria 1.09 · Atletico Gloriense 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in America FC Propria vs Atletico Gloriense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.