Football · Brazil Copa Sergipe · 01/08, 21:00

Prediction: Desportiva Aracaju vs America FC Propria

Team pages: Desportiva Aracaju · America FC Propria

Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.94Total
Desportiva Aracaju1.5
America FC Propria0.43
1X2
64% 25% 11%
Desportiva Aracaju Draw America FC Propria
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 57%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Desportiva Aracaju 0-3-7 (W-D-L)
LDLLDLLLLD
America FC Propria 2-5-3 (W-D-L)
DWLDDWDDLL
Head-to-head
Desportiva Aracaju 0–1–0 America FC Propria (1 last)
  • America FC Propria0-0Desportiva Aracaju
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Desportiva Aracaju 1415 · America FC Propria 1498
Desportiva AracajuDrawAmerica FC Propria
Our model63%27%9%
Market65%23%11%
Estimated total (ours) 1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America FC Propria (rating 1415 vs 1498).
  • Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Desportiva AracajuAmerica FC Propria
Goals for / against (FT)0.5 / 1.70.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.2 / 0.40.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/80/20%30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 4.51.6 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)6.1 / 0.85.7 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Desportiva Aracaju 010 America FC Propria

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DateHomeScoreAway
31/01/26
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
America FC Propria0-0
HT 0-0
Desportiva Aracaju

Standings · Brazil Copa Sergipe

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Falcon 1100 303
2 Lagarto 1100 103
3 Atletico Gloriense 1010 001
3 Desportiva Aracaju 1010 001
5 America FC Propria 1001 010
6 AA Guarany 1001 030

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentDesportiva AracajuAmerica FC Propria
Falcon 0-2 L 2-1 W
Lagarto 1-3 L 0-1 L
CS Sergipe 0-2 L 1-1 D
Itabaiana 1-2 L 0-1 L
AD Confianca 0-3 L 0-0 D
Record vs common 0 W 0 D 5 L 1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: America FC Propria (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Desportiva Aracaju

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/07 Atletico Gloriense
Brazil Copa Sergipe
0-0 0-0 710 D
14/02 Falcon
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 0-2 L
12/02 Lagarto
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-1 1-3 L
08/02 AA Guarany
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
1-1 1-2 54 L
05/02 CS Sergipe
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 0-2 45 L
31/01 America FC Propria
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 0-0 24 D
25/01 Itabaiana
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 1-2 310 L
22/01 Dorense
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 1-2 76 L
18/01 Atletico Gloriense
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
1-1 1-1 010 D
10/01 AD Confianca
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-1 0-3 86 L

America FC Propria

DWLDDWDDLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
30/07 Lagarto
Brazil Copa Sergipe
0-0 0-1 32 L
08/03 Itabaiana
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 0-1 18 L
01/03 CS Sergipe
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-1 1-1 16 D
27/02 CS Sergipe
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
1-0 1-1 26 D
22/02 Lagarto
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
2-0 3-0 47 W
19/02 CEFAT Tirol
Copa do Brasil
1-0 1-1 49 D
14/02 AD Confianca
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 0-0 36 D
11/02 Itabaiana
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-3 0-3 28 L
07/02 Falcon
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
1-1 2-1 79 W
05/02 Lagarto
Brazil Campeonato Sergipano
0-0 0-0 20 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Desportiva Aracaju vs America FC Propria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Desportiva Aracaju win (64%). Probabilities: Desportiva Aracaju 64%, draw 25%, America FC Propria 11%.

How many goals are expected in Desportiva Aracaju vs America FC Propria?

The model expects 1.94 goals (Desportiva Aracaju 1.5 · America FC Propria 0.43), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Desportiva Aracaju vs America FC Propria?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.