Football · Poland III Liga · 14/10, 18:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Rakow Czestochowa II

Team pages: Zaglebie Sosnowiec · Rakow Czestochowa II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Zaglebie Sosnowiec2.28

Rakow Czestochowa II0.81

1X2

70% 19% 11%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec Draw Rakow Czestochowa II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Rakow Czestochowa II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1562 · Rakow Czestochowa II 1482

	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	Draw	Rakow Czestochowa II
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	70%	19%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zaglebie Sosnowiec (rating 1562 vs 1482).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	Rakow Czestochowa II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.75

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +6’	1.28	4.75	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	Rakow Czestochowa II
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	1-0 W	0-1 L
Gornik Polkowice	2-1 W	4-5 L
Polonia Nysa	2-1 W	2-0 W
Sparta Katowice	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sleza Wroclaw	3-1 W	2-1 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Sosnowiec (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
03/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
18/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
16/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
09/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	9	4	W

Rakow Czestochowa II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
18/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
23/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
19/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	12	3	L
16/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
08/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
31/07	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-2	4-5	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Rakow Czestochowa II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Sosnowiec win (70%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 70%, draw 19%, Rakow Czestochowa II 11%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Rakow Czestochowa II?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2.28 · Rakow Czestochowa II 0.81), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Rakow Czestochowa II?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.