Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: Polonia Lidzbark vs LKS Lodz II

Team pages: Polonia Lidzbark · LKS Lodz II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Polonia Lidzbark1.76

LKS Lodz II1.9

1X2

35% 24% 41%

Polonia Lidzbark Draw LKS Lodz II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Lidzbark 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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LKS Lodz II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Lidzbark 1497 · LKS Lodz II 1518

	Polonia Lidzbark	Draw	LKS Lodz II
Our model	36%	23%	41%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Lidzbark	LKS Lodz II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	2.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.5	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.70

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +30’	2.55	3.70	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Lidzbark	LKS Lodz II
Mlawianka Mlawa	2-3 L	2-0 W
LKS Lomza	3-2 W	4-3 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	3-4 L
KTS Weszlo	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Lidzbark (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Lidzbark

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
10/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
06/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
29/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-4	3	6	L
19/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L

LKS Lodz II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
14/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
10/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-1	7-2	6	1	W
26/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
12/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	8	7	D
06/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
30/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-3	4-3	9	3	W
23/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	3-4	9	5	L
19/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Lidzbark vs LKS Lodz II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LKS Lodz II win (41%). Probabilities: Polonia Lidzbark 35%, draw 24%, LKS Lodz II 41%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Lidzbark vs LKS Lodz II?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Polonia Lidzbark 1.76 · LKS Lodz II 1.9), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Lidzbark vs LKS Lodz II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.