Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: Wigry Suwalki vs KTS Weszlo

Team pages: Wigry Suwalki · KTS Weszlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Wigry Suwalki1.64

KTS Weszlo1.33

1X2

44% 25% 30%

Wigry Suwalki Draw KTS Weszlo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wigry Suwalki 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWWWWW

KTS Weszlo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wigry Suwalki 1562 · KTS Weszlo 1578

	Wigry Suwalki	Draw	KTS Weszlo
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wigry Suwalki	KTS Weszlo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +18’	2.00	3.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wigry Suwalki	KTS Weszlo
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-0 W	3-2 W
Widzew Lodz II	6-3 W	2-0 W
Olimpia Zambrow	1-1 D	1-3 L
Polonia Lidzbark	1-3 L	1-1 D
Olimpia Elblag	3-1 W	2-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-0 D	1-0 W
Zabkovia Zabki	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wigry Suwalki (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wigry Suwalki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	8	5	W
09/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	3-1	3-1	4	5	W
03/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
26/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
20/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-2	6-3	–	–	W
12/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	8	1	L
29/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	6	3	W
23/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

KTS Weszlo

WWDWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
11/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
26/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
05/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
29/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
23/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	1	5	W
19/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wigry Suwalki vs KTS Weszlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wigry Suwalki win (44%). Probabilities: Wigry Suwalki 44%, draw 25%, KTS Weszlo 30%.

How many goals are expected in Wigry Suwalki vs KTS Weszlo?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Wigry Suwalki 1.64 · KTS Weszlo 1.33), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wigry Suwalki vs KTS Weszlo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.