Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Lowicz

Team pages: Warta Sieradz · Pelikan Lowicz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Warta Sieradz1.7

Pelikan Lowicz1.39

1X2

44% 25% 31%

Warta Sieradz Draw Pelikan Lowicz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDDLWW

Pelikan Lowicz 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 3–3 Pelikan Lowicz (6 last)

Pelikan Lowicz1-2Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz0-5Pelikan Lowicz
Pelikan Lowicz3-2Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz2-1Pelikan Lowicz
Warta Sieradz2-0Pelikan Lowicz
Pelikan Lowicz2-0Warta Sieradz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1520 · Pelikan Lowicz 1508

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Pelikan Lowicz
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Pelikan Lowicz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:25 +7’	2.00	3.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 3–0–3 Pelikan Lowicz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/25 Poland III Liga	Pelikan Lowicz	1-2 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz
21/08/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	0-5 HT 0-3	Pelikan Lowicz
19/05/24 Poland III Liga	Pelikan Lowicz	3-2 HT 3-2	Warta Sieradz
27/01/24 Europe Friendlies	Warta Sieradz	2-1 HT 2-1	Pelikan Lowicz
28/10/23 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-0 HT 1-0	Pelikan Lowicz
19/03/23 Poland III Liga	Pelikan Lowicz	2-0 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Pelikan Lowicz
Widzew Lodz II	1-0 W	1-1 D
Wigry Suwalki	1-3 L	1-4 L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	1-1 D	4-1 W
Olimpia Zambrow	2-2 D	3-1 W
Polonia Lidzbark	2-1 W	1-0 W
Olimpia Elblag	4-1 W	0-1 L
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-2 L	4-1 W
Zabkovia Zabki	0-4 L	1-2 L
CK Troszyn	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Sieradz

WLLWWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
17/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
09/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
03/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
19/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
12/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
04/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
29/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	8	2	L
19/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	7	2	W

Pelikan Lowicz

LDLWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
10/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	4	4	W
03/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
26/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	2	7	W
19/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
04/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
29/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
23/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Lowicz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Sieradz win (44%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 44%, draw 25%, Pelikan Lowicz 31%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Lowicz?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Warta Sieradz 1.7 · Pelikan Lowicz 1.39), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Pelikan Lowicz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.