Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 12:00

Prediction: Rakow Czestochowa II vs Warta Gorzow

Team pages: Rakow Czestochowa II · Warta Gorzow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Rakow Czestochowa II1.25

Warta Gorzow1.19

1X2

38% 28% 35%

Rakow Czestochowa II Draw Warta Gorzow

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rakow Czestochowa II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDWDWLL

Warta Gorzow 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWLDDL

Head-to-head

Rakow Czestochowa II 1–3 Warta Gorzow (4 last)

Warta Gorzow2-1Rakow Czestochowa II
Rakow Czestochowa II0-1Warta Gorzow
Rakow Czestochowa II0-2Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow1-2Rakow Czestochowa II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rakow Czestochowa II 1469 · Warta Gorzow 1479

	Rakow Czestochowa II	Draw	Warta Gorzow
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Warta Gorzow: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rakow Czestochowa II	Warta Gorzow
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +8’	2.30	3.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rakow Czestochowa II 1–0–3 Warta Gorzow

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	2-1 HT 0-0	Rakow Czestochowa II
30/09/23 Poland III Liga	Rakow Czestochowa II	0-1 HT 0-0	Warta Gorzow
24/05/23 Poland III Liga	Rakow Czestochowa II	0-2 HT 0-1	Warta Gorzow
22/10/22 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-2 HT 0-1	Rakow Czestochowa II

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rakow Czestochowa II	Warta Gorzow
Polonia Nysa	2-0 W	0-1 L
Sparta Katowice	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sleza Wroclaw	2-1 W	1-1 D
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-0 D	1-4 L
Stal Brzeg	0-3 L	1-0 W
KS Stilon Gorzow	1-4 L	1-1 D
Zaglebie Lubin II	2-2 D	0-2 L
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Rakow Czestochowa II (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rakow Czestochowa II

LDLLDWDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
10/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
18/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
23/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
19/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	12	3	L
16/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
08/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L

Warta Gorzow

DDWLDWLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	10	7	L
03/10	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
12/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
22/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rakow Czestochowa II vs Warta Gorzow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rakow Czestochowa II win (38%). Probabilities: Rakow Czestochowa II 38%, draw 28%, Warta Gorzow 35%.

How many goals are expected in Rakow Czestochowa II vs Warta Gorzow?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Rakow Czestochowa II 1.25 · Warta Gorzow 1.19), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rakow Czestochowa II vs Warta Gorzow?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.