Football · Poland III Liga · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin II vs KS Stilon Gorzow

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin II · KS Stilon Gorzow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Zaglebie Lubin II2.02

KS Stilon Gorzow1.35

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Zaglebie Lubin II Draw KS Stilon Gorzow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin II 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDDDL

KS Stilon Gorzow 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLDWWLD

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin II 1–1 KS Stilon Gorzow (2 last)

Zaglebie Lubin II3-0KS Stilon Gorzow
KS Stilon Gorzow1-0Zaglebie Lubin II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin II 1544 · KS Stilon Gorzow 1499

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Draw	KS Stilon Gorzow
Our model	52%	23%	24%
Market	53%	22%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zaglebie Lubin II (rating 1544 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin II	KS Stilon Gorzow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:31 +6’	1.70	4.00	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin II 1–0–1 KS Stilon Gorzow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/19 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	3-0 HT 2-0	KS Stilon Gorzow
29/09/18 Poland III Liga	KS Stilon Gorzow	1-0 HT 1-0	Zaglebie Lubin II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
12	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin II	KS Stilon Gorzow
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	1-1 D	0-0 D
Gornik Polkowice	1-1 D	1-4 L
Barycz Sulow	3-3 D	2-1 W
Carina Gubin	3-0 W	3-1 W
ROW 1964 Rybnik	2-2 D	0-0 D
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-0 W	2-4 L
Warta Gorzow	2-0 W	1-1 D
Miedz Legnica II	3-2 W	2-2 D
MKS Kluczbork	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Lubin II (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin II

WWWWDWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
10/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
02/10	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-3	4	3	D
18/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
12/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
05/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
29/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
19/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

KS Stilon Gorzow

WLDDLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/10	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	8	3	L
03/10	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	1-2	2-4	4	2	L
05/09	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
22/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin II vs KS Stilon Gorzow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin II win (52%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin II 52%, draw 23%, KS Stilon Gorzow 25%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin II vs KS Stilon Gorzow?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Zaglebie Lubin II 2.02 · KS Stilon Gorzow 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin II vs KS Stilon Gorzow?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.