Football · Northern Ireland Championship Women · 29/07, 20:30
Prediction: Ballymoney United (W) vs St. James Swifts (W)
Team pages: Ballymoney United (W) · St. James Swifts (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.44Total
Ballymoney United (W)1.6
St. James Swifts (W)2.84
1X2
Ballymoney United (W)
Draw
St. James Swifts (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Ballymoney United (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
St. James Swifts (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ballymoney United (W)
0–3
St. James Swifts (W)
(3 last)
- St. James Swifts (W)5-1Ballymoney United (W)
- St. James Swifts (W)6-2Ballymoney United (W)
- Ballymoney United (W)2-7St. James Swifts (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ballymoney United (W) 1465 · St. James Swifts (W) 1537
| Ballymoney United (W) | Draw | St. James Swifts (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 18% | 63% |
| Market | 20% | 17% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.44 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. James Swifts (W) (rating 1465 vs 1537).
- H2H favours St. James Swifts (W): 3-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ballymoney United (W) | St. James Swifts (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 3.2 | 2.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.3 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ballymoney United (W) 0–0–3 St. James Swifts (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship Women | St. James Swifts (W) | 5-1 HT 1-0 | Ballymoney United (W) |
| 25/06/25 Northern Ireland Championship Women | St. James Swifts (W) | 6-2 HT 2-0 | Ballymoney United (W) |
| 02/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship Women | Ballymoney United (W) | 2-7 HT 0-5 | St. James Swifts (W) |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ballymoney United (W) | St. James Swifts (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Greenisland (W) | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Bangor FC (W) | 1-6 L | 4-1 W |
| Craigavon City (W) | 2-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Ballymena Utd (W) | 4-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Strabane Athletic (W) | 2-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Ballyclare Comrades (W) | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Mid Ulster (W) | 6-3 W | 4-1 W |
| Sion Swifts (W) | 0-6 L | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 4 L | 5 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: St. James Swifts (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ballymoney United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-6 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 26/06 | Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-4 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 29/04 | Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 6-3 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/04 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/04 | Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
St. James Swifts (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 03/06 | Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 20/05 | Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
4-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 29/04 | Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
0-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/04 | Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/04 | Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 03/04 | Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ballymoney United (W) vs St. James Swifts (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an St. James Swifts (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Ballymoney United (W) 20%, draw 17%, St. James Swifts (W) 63%.
How many goals are expected in Ballymoney United (W) vs St. James Swifts (W)?
The model expects 4.44 goals (Ballymoney United (W) 1.6 · St. James Swifts (W) 2.84), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ballymoney United (W) vs St. James Swifts (W)?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.