Football · Northern Ireland Championship Women · 29/07, 20:30

Prediction: Ballymena Utd (W) vs Craigavon City (W)

Team pages: Ballymena Utd (W) · Craigavon City (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Ballymena Utd (W)2.38

Craigavon City (W)1.18

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Ballymena Utd (W) Draw Craigavon City (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ballymena Utd (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWLDWW

Craigavon City (W) 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Ballymena Utd (W) 1–0 Craigavon City (W) (1 last)

Craigavon City (W)0-2Ballymena Utd (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ballymena Utd (W) 1505 · Craigavon City (W) 1398

	Ballymena Utd (W)	Draw	Craigavon City (W)
Our model	63%	20%	17%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ballymena Utd (W) (rating 1505 vs 1398).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ballymena Utd (W)	Craigavon City (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	0.6 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.2 / 2.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/10/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.2	0.9 / 1.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +6’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ballymena Utd (W) 1–0–0 Craigavon City (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 Northern Ireland Cup Women	Craigavon City (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Ballymena Utd (W)

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ballymena Utd (W)	Craigavon City (W)
Ballyclare Comrades (W)	5-0 W	1-3 L
Bangor FC (W)	0-0 D	0-2 L
Strabane Athletic (W)	2-0 W	0-6 L
Ballymoney United (W)	2-4 L	1-2 L
Mid Ulster (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
St. James Swifts (W)	0-3 L	1-5 L
Sion Swifts (W)	0-3 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Ballymena Utd (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ballymena Utd (W)

LLDDLWLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	3-0	5-0	1	4	W
17/07	Craigavon City (W) Northern Ireland Cup Women	2-0	2-0	2	0	W
08/07	Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
06/07	Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland County Antrim Shield Women	0-2	1-4	1	0	L
24/06	Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/06	Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-0	2-4	4	4	L
12/06	Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Cup Women	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
22/05	Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
13/05	St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
06/05	Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-2	0-3	2	0	L

Craigavon City (W)

LLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-2	0-2	0	0	L
17/07	Ballymena Utd (W) Northern Ireland Cup Women	0-2	0-2	3	0	L
08/07	Strabane Athletic (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-4	0-6	2	1	L
26/06	Ballymoney United (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-2	1-2	0	1	L
17/06	Ballyclare Comrades (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
05/06	Mid Ulster (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
20/05	St. James Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-4	1-5	5	3	L
15/05	Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-3	0-6	1	2	L
06/05	Greenisland (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	1-1	1-2	1	1	L
15/04	Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Championship Women	0-3	1-4	0	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ballymena Utd (W) vs Craigavon City (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ballymena Utd (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Ballymena Utd (W) 64%, draw 19%, Craigavon City (W) 17%.

How many goals are expected in Ballymena Utd (W) vs Craigavon City (W)?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Ballymena Utd (W) 2.38 · Craigavon City (W) 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ballymena Utd (W) vs Craigavon City (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.