Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 28/09, 18:00

Prediction: FK Dubocica vs Javor Ivanjica

Team pages: FK Dubocica · Javor Ivanjica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

FK Dubocica1.24

Javor Ivanjica1.89

1X2

24% 24% 52%

FK Dubocica Draw Javor Ivanjica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Dubocica 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLLWD

Javor Ivanjica 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWWDDW

Head-to-head

FK Dubocica 0–1–1 Javor Ivanjica (2 last)

Javor Ivanjica1-0FK Dubocica
FK Dubocica1-1Javor Ivanjica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Dubocica 1499 · Javor Ivanjica 1552

	FK Dubocica	Draw	Javor Ivanjica
Our model	24%	24%	52%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Javor Ivanjica (rating 1499 vs 1552).
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Dubocica	Javor Ivanjica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	2.2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.75

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.00 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.77

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +3’	3.80	3.75	1.73
14:00 +2’	3.75▼	3.75	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +51’	3.88	3.37	1.75
16:01 +1’	3.99▲	3.44▲	1.75
16:51 +11’	4.00▲	3.34▼	1.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Dubocica 0–1–1 Javor Ivanjica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/25 Serbia Prva Liga	Javor Ivanjica	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Dubocica
23/09/24 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Dubocica	1-1 HT 1-0	Javor Ivanjica

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	11	8	1	2	20	13	25
2	FK Backa Topola	11	5	6	0	20	12	21
3	Smederevo	11	6	3	2	20	13	21
4	OFK Vrsac	11	7	0	4	16	11	21
5	Javor Ivanjica	10	5	4	1	25	12	19
6	Spartak Subotica	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
7	Metalac Gornji	10	4	2	4	14	12	14
8	FK Vozdovac	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	FK Dubocica	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
10	FK Napredak	10	4	1	5	10	15	13
11	Loznica	10	2	6	2	14	16	12
12	Bor 1919	10	2	2	6	7	17	8
13	FK Proleter 023	10	1	4	5	10	15	7
14	Jedinstvo UB	10	2	1	7	11	18	7
14	FK Graficar Beograd	10	2	1	7	11	18	7
16	Teleoptik	10	1	4	5	11	19	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Dubocica	Javor Ivanjica
FK Backa Topola	0-0 D	1-1 D
Teleoptik	2-0 W	5-1 W
OFK Vrsac	1-2 L	1-2 L
FK Proleter 023	3-2 W	4-2 W
Loznica	0-0 D	2-2 D
FK Vozdovac	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Javor Ivanjica (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Dubocica

WDWLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-3	0-5	3	5	L
06/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
31/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
23/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
19/08	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	5	8	L
15/08	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	3-2	2	10	W
08/08	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
01/08	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	0	6	W

Javor Ivanjica

WDLWDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-2	1	3	W
17/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
12/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
05/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
30/08	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
24/08	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	2-2	3	10	D
19/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
15/08	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
09/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
01/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	3-1	5-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Dubocica vs Javor Ivanjica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Javor Ivanjica win (52%). Probabilities: FK Dubocica 24%, draw 24%, Javor Ivanjica 52%.

How many goals are expected in FK Dubocica vs Javor Ivanjica?

The model expects 3.13 goals (FK Dubocica 1.24 · Javor Ivanjica 1.89), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Dubocica vs Javor Ivanjica?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.