Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 05/10, 18:00

Prediction: FK Backa Topola vs FK Graficar Beograd

Team pages: FK Backa Topola · FK Graficar Beograd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

FK Backa Topola2.21

FK Graficar Beograd1

1X2

64% 21% 15%

FK Backa Topola Draw FK Graficar Beograd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Backa Topola 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWDDD

FK Graficar Beograd 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

FK Backa Topola 2–1 FK Graficar Beograd (3 last)

FK Graficar Beograd2-0FK Backa Topola
FK Backa Topola2-1FK Graficar Beograd
FK Backa Topola4-2FK Graficar Beograd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Backa Topola 1545 · FK Graficar Beograd 1475

	FK Backa Topola	Draw	FK Graficar Beograd
Our model	64%	21%	15%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Backa Topola (rating 1545 vs 1475).
H2H favours FK Backa Topola: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Backa Topola	FK Graficar Beograd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.3	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.20

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:55 +8’	1.40	4.20	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Backa Topola 2–0–1 FK Graficar Beograd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/10/25 Serbia Cup	FK Graficar Beograd	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Backa Topola
01/02/23 Europe Friendlies	FK Backa Topola	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Graficar Beograd
05/07/22 Europe Friendlies	FK Backa Topola	4-2 HT 1-1	FK Graficar Beograd

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	11	8	1	2	20	13	25
2	FK Backa Topola	11	5	6	0	20	12	21
3	Smederevo	11	6	3	2	20	13	21
4	OFK Vrsac	11	7	0	4	16	11	21
5	Javor Ivanjica	11	5	5	1	26	13	20
6	Metalac Gornji	11	5	2	4	16	12	17
7	Spartak Subotica	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
8	FK Vozdovac	11	4	3	4	11	10	15
9	Loznica	11	3	6	2	16	16	15
10	FK Dubocica	11	4	3	4	13	15	15
11	FK Napredak	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
12	FK Proleter 023	11	2	4	5	13	15	10
13	FK Graficar Beograd	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
14	Teleoptik	12	2	4	6	14	23	10
15	Bor 1919	12	2	2	8	7	21	8
16	Jedinstvo UB	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Backa Topola	FK Graficar Beograd
Borac Cacak	2-2 D	1-2 L
FK Dubocica	0-0 D	1-4 L
FK Proleter 023	1-1 D	1-2 L
Loznica	4-0 W	2-2 D
FK Vozdovac	3-2 W	1-0 W
Smederevo	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Backa Topola (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Backa Topola

DWDWDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
21/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
16/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	9	6	W
07/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
30/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	8	9	D
23/08	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
19/08	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	10	8	D
15/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
09/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	7	10	D

FK Graficar Beograd

LWDLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	3-1	4-1	5	2	W
21/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
17/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
12/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-4	1-4	2	4	L
05/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
31/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-4	6	6	L
24/08	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
19/08	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-2	1	6	D
14/08	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
09/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Backa Topola vs FK Graficar Beograd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Backa Topola win (64%). Probabilities: FK Backa Topola 64%, draw 21%, FK Graficar Beograd 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Backa Topola vs FK Graficar Beograd?

The model expects 3.22 goals (FK Backa Topola 2.21 · FK Graficar Beograd 1), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Backa Topola vs FK Graficar Beograd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.