Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: Spartak Subotica vs FK Proleter 023

Team pages: Spartak Subotica · FK Proleter 023

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Spartak Subotica2.09

FK Proleter 0230.97

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Spartak Subotica Draw FK Proleter 023

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Spartak Subotica 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDWWLLL

FK Proleter 023 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spartak Subotica 1482 · FK Proleter 023 1471

	Spartak Subotica	Draw	FK Proleter 023
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spartak Subotica	FK Proleter 023
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	6.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.10

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:51 +18’	1.44	4.10	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	11	8	1	2	20	13	25
2	FK Backa Topola	11	5	6	0	20	12	21
3	Smederevo	11	6	3	2	20	13	21
4	OFK Vrsac	11	7	0	4	16	11	21
5	Javor Ivanjica	11	5	5	1	26	13	20
6	Metalac Gornji	11	5	2	4	16	12	17
7	Spartak Subotica	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
8	FK Vozdovac	11	4	3	4	11	10	15
9	Loznica	11	3	6	2	16	16	15
10	FK Dubocica	11	4	3	4	13	15	15
11	FK Napredak	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
12	FK Proleter 023	11	2	4	5	13	15	10
13	FK Graficar Beograd	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
14	Bor 1919	11	2	2	7	7	19	8
15	Jedinstvo UB	11	2	1	8	11	21	7
16	Teleoptik	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spartak Subotica	FK Proleter 023
OFK Vrsac	2-0 W	0-1 L
Jedinstvo UB	1-1 D	3-0 W
Javor Ivanjica	2-2 D	2-4 L
FK Backa Topola	2-2 D	1-1 D
Teleoptik	2-4 L	1-1 D
Metalac Gornji	4-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spartak Subotica (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spartak Subotica

WLDDDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
21/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
16/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
11/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
29/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
24/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	2-2	0	10	D
19/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
14/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
08/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	4-2	3	4	W

FK Proleter 023

LLLWLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	2	8	W
21/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	2-4	4	3	L
16/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
05/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
30/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
24/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
15/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-3	7	10	L
08/08	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spartak Subotica vs FK Proleter 023?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spartak Subotica win (62%). Probabilities: Spartak Subotica 62%, draw 22%, FK Proleter 023 16%.

How many goals are expected in Spartak Subotica vs FK Proleter 023?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Spartak Subotica 2.09 · FK Proleter 023 0.97), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spartak Subotica vs FK Proleter 023?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.