Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 05/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Napredak vs Loznica

Team pages: FK Napredak · Loznica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

FK Napredak1.46

Loznica1.07

1X2

45% 29% 26%

FK Napredak Draw Loznica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Napredak 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLLLD

Loznica 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDWDLDWW

Head-to-head

FK Napredak 1–1–0 Loznica (2 last)

FK Napredak1-0Loznica
Loznica0-0FK Napredak

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Napredak 1465 · Loznica 1515

	FK Napredak	Draw	Loznica
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loznica (rating 1465 vs 1515).
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Napredak	Loznica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:57 +5’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Napredak 1–1–0 Loznica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/16 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Napredak	1-0 HT 1-0	Loznica
12/09/15 Serbia Prva Liga	Loznica	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Napredak

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	11	8	1	2	20	13	25
2	FK Backa Topola	11	5	6	0	20	12	21
3	Smederevo	11	6	3	2	20	13	21
4	OFK Vrsac	11	7	0	4	16	11	21
5	Javor Ivanjica	11	5	5	1	26	13	20
6	Metalac Gornji	11	5	2	4	16	12	17
7	Spartak Subotica	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
8	FK Vozdovac	11	4	3	4	11	10	15
9	Loznica	11	3	6	2	16	16	15
10	FK Dubocica	11	4	3	4	13	15	15
11	FK Napredak	11	4	2	5	10	15	14
12	FK Proleter 023	11	2	4	5	13	15	10
13	FK Graficar Beograd	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
14	Teleoptik	12	2	4	6	14	23	10
15	Bor 1919	12	2	2	8	7	21	8
16	Jedinstvo UB	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Napredak	Loznica
Spartak Subotica	0-1 L	2-0 W
Jedinstvo UB	2-1 W	3-2 W
Javor Ivanjica	0-3 L	2-2 D
FK Backa Topola	1-2 L	0-4 L
Teleoptik	1-1 D	1-1 D
Metalac Gornji	2-1 W	4-2 W
Bor 1919	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Loznica (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Napredak

WWDLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
21/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	6	7	L
16/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
11/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
23/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
19/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
14/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	7	10	W
08/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	9	W

Loznica

DLDDWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
21/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
17/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-2	0	6	D
12/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-4	1	6	L
06/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	11	6	D
29/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	4-2	3	0	W
23/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
19/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
14/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
08/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Napredak vs Loznica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Napredak win (45%). Probabilities: FK Napredak 45%, draw 29%, Loznica 26%.

How many goals are expected in FK Napredak vs Loznica?

The model expects 2.53 goals (FK Napredak 1.46 · Loznica 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Napredak vs Loznica?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.