Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 17/10, 18:00

Prediction: FK Napredak vs FK Dubocica

Team pages: FK Napredak · FK Dubocica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

FK Napredak1.44

FK Dubocica0.79

1X2

52% 28% 20%

FK Napredak Draw FK Dubocica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Napredak 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDWD

FK Dubocica 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDDDW

Head-to-head

FK Napredak 2–0 FK Dubocica (2 last)

FK Napredak1-0FK Dubocica
FK Napredak4-0FK Dubocica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Napredak 1474 · FK Dubocica 1483

	FK Napredak	Draw	FK Dubocica
Our model	51%	29%	19%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Napredak: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Napredak	FK Dubocica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.40

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.76 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +8’	1.70	3.40	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +34’	1.76	3.24	4.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Napredak 2–0–0 FK Dubocica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Club Friendly List	FK Napredak	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Dubocica
17/11/23 Europe Friendlies	FK Napredak	4-0 HT 4-0	FK Dubocica

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borac Cacak	13	9	1	3	24	17	28
2	Javor Ivanjica	14	7	6	1	33	15	27
3	FK Backa Topola	13	7	6	0	28	14	27
4	Smederevo	14	7	4	3	22	15	25
5	OFK Vrsac	14	8	1	5	17	13	25
6	FK Dubocica	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
7	FK Vozdovac	13	5	3	5	13	11	18
8	Metalac Gornji	13	5	3	5	16	15	18
9	Loznica	13	4	6	3	17	19	18
10	FK Napredak	13	5	3	5	13	15	18
11	FK Proleter 023	14	3	6	5	20	16	15
12	Spartak Subotica	13	4	3	6	19	25	15
13	Teleoptik	14	3	4	7	17	24	13
14	FK Graficar Beograd	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
15	Jedinstvo UB	13	2	2	9	12	24	8
16	Bor 1919	14	2	2	10	8	28	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Napredak	FK Dubocica
OFK Vrsac	1-2 L	1-2 L
Spartak Subotica	0-1 L	2-1 W
Jedinstvo UB	2-1 W	0-0 D
Javor Ivanjica	0-3 L	1-1 D
FK Backa Topola	1-2 L	0-0 D
Teleoptik	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Dubocica (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Napredak

DLLWLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
05/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
29/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
21/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	6	7	L
16/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
11/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	2	4	L
23/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
19/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

FK Dubocica

LLWLLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
04/10	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
28/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-3	0-5	3	5	L
06/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
31/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
23/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
19/08	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Napredak vs FK Dubocica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Napredak win (52%). Probabilities: FK Napredak 52%, draw 28%, FK Dubocica 20%.

How many goals are expected in FK Napredak vs FK Dubocica?

The model expects 2.23 goals (FK Napredak 1.44 · FK Dubocica 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Napredak vs FK Dubocica?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.