Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: FK Graficar Beograd vs Spartak Subotica

Team pages: FK Graficar Beograd · Spartak Subotica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

FK Graficar Beograd1.59

Spartak Subotica1.69

1X2

35% 26% 39%

FK Graficar Beograd Draw Spartak Subotica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Graficar Beograd 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Spartak Subotica 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLLLLD

Head-to-head

FK Graficar Beograd 1–0 Spartak Subotica (1 last)

FK Graficar Beograd2-0Spartak Subotica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Graficar Beograd 1445 · Spartak Subotica 1449

	FK Graficar Beograd	Draw	Spartak Subotica
Our model	35%	25%	39%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Graficar Beograd	Spartak Subotica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.25

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +3’	2.63	3.25	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Graficar Beograd 1–0–0 Spartak Subotica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/23 Serbia Cup	FK Graficar Beograd	2-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Subotica

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Backa Topola	15	9	6	0	35	16	33
2	Borac Cacak	14	9	2	3	27	20	29
3	Javor Ivanjica	14	7	6	1	33	15	27
4	Smederevo	14	7	4	3	22	15	25
5	OFK Vrsac	14	8	1	5	17	13	25
6	FK Napredak	14	6	3	5	14	15	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	5	4	5	14	12	19
8	Loznica	14	4	7	3	18	20	19
9	FK Dubocica	14	5	4	5	15	17	19
10	Metalac Gornji	14	5	3	6	17	20	18
11	Spartak Subotica	14	4	4	6	22	28	16
12	FK Proleter 023	14	3	6	5	20	16	15
13	Teleoptik	15	3	4	8	18	26	13
14	FK Graficar Beograd	14	3	2	9	18	27	11
15	Jedinstvo UB	14	3	2	9	15	25	11
16	Bor 1919	14	2	2	10	8	28	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Graficar Beograd	Spartak Subotica
Jedinstvo UB	1-3 L	1-1 D
Javor Ivanjica	1-1 D	2-2 D
OFK Vrsac	1-4 L	2-0 W
Borac Cacak	1-2 L	3-3 D
FK Dubocica	1-4 L	1-2 L
FK Proleter 023	1-2 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spartak Subotica (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Graficar Beograd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
11/10	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
05/10	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
28/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	3-1	4-1	5	2	W
21/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
17/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
12/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-4	1-4	2	4	L
05/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
31/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-4	6	6	L
24/08	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	6	6	L

Spartak Subotica

DDWWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	3-3	4	6	D
11/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	1	8	L
04/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-3	0-6	1	5	L
28/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
21/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
16/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
11/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
29/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
24/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	2-2	0	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Graficar Beograd vs Spartak Subotica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spartak Subotica win (39%). Probabilities: FK Graficar Beograd 35%, draw 26%, Spartak Subotica 39%.

How many goals are expected in FK Graficar Beograd vs Spartak Subotica?

The model expects 3.28 goals (FK Graficar Beograd 1.59 · Spartak Subotica 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Graficar Beograd vs Spartak Subotica?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.