Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 23/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Dubocica vs Smederevo

Team pages: FK Dubocica · Smederevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

FK Dubocica1.19

Smederevo1.37

1X2

32% 28% 40%

FK Dubocica Draw Smederevo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Dubocica 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDDDWL

Smederevo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWWWLD

Head-to-head

FK Dubocica 3–3 Smederevo (6 last)

FK Dubocica1-2Smederevo
Smederevo4-0FK Dubocica
FK Dubocica2-0Smederevo
FK Dubocica2-1Smederevo
Smederevo0-1FK Dubocica
FK Dubocica1-2Smederevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Dubocica 1469 · Smederevo 1530

	FK Dubocica	Draw	Smederevo
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Smederevo (rating 1469 vs 1530).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Dubocica	Smederevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	5.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +2’	2.80	3.30	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Dubocica 3–0–3 Smederevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Dubocica	1-2 HT 0-0	Smederevo
23/11/25 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	4-0 HT 0-0	FK Dubocica
20/08/25 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Dubocica	2-0 HT 2-0	Smederevo
12/05/25 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Dubocica	2-1 HT 0-0	Smederevo
06/04/25 Serbia Prva Liga	Smederevo	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Dubocica
11/11/24 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Dubocica	1-2 HT 0-0	Smederevo

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Backa Topola	14	8	6	0	33	15	30
2	Borac Cacak	14	9	2	3	27	20	29
3	Javor Ivanjica	14	7	6	1	33	15	27
4	Smederevo	14	7	4	3	22	15	25
5	OFK Vrsac	14	8	1	5	17	13	25
6	FK Napredak	14	6	3	5	14	15	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	5	4	5	14	12	19
8	Loznica	14	4	7	3	18	20	19
9	FK Dubocica	14	5	4	5	15	17	19
10	Metalac Gornji	14	5	3	6	17	20	18
11	Spartak Subotica	14	4	4	6	22	28	16
12	FK Proleter 023	14	3	6	5	20	16	15
13	Teleoptik	14	3	4	7	17	24	13
14	FK Graficar Beograd	14	3	2	9	18	27	11
15	Jedinstvo UB	14	3	2	9	15	25	11
16	Bor 1919	14	2	2	10	8	28	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Dubocica	Smederevo
FK Napredak	0-1 L	4-1 W
Spartak Subotica	2-1 W	2-1 W
Jedinstvo UB	0-0 D	1-2 L
Javor Ivanjica	1-1 D	1-3 L
FK Backa Topola	0-0 D	1-1 D
Teleoptik	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Dubocica (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Dubocica

LWLLWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
11/10	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
04/10	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
28/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/09	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-3	0-5	3	5	L
06/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
31/08	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
23/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L

Smederevo

DDLLWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
05/10	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
26/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
21/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
16/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
12/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
05/09	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
24/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Dubocica vs Smederevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Smederevo win (40%). Probabilities: FK Dubocica 32%, draw 28%, Smederevo 40%.

How many goals are expected in FK Dubocica vs Smederevo?

The model expects 2.56 goals (FK Dubocica 1.19 · Smederevo 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Dubocica vs Smederevo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.