Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 02/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Napredak

Team pages: FK Graficar Beograd · FK Napredak

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

FK Graficar Beograd1.13

FK Napredak1.28

1X2

32% 29% 39%

FK Graficar Beograd Draw FK Napredak

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Graficar Beograd 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLDLL

FK Napredak 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWDWD

Head-to-head

FK Graficar Beograd 0–1 FK Napredak (1 last)

FK Napredak1-0FK Graficar Beograd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Graficar Beograd 1445 · FK Napredak 1485

	FK Graficar Beograd	Draw	FK Napredak
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	33%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Napredak (rating 1445 vs 1485).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Graficar Beograd	FK Napredak
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +8’	2.75	3.25	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Graficar Beograd 0–0–1 FK Napredak

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Napredak	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Graficar Beograd

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Backa Topola	15	9	6	0	35	16	33
2	Javor Ivanjica	15	8	6	1	35	16	30
3	Borac Cacak	15	9	3	3	27	20	30
4	OFK Vrsac	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
5	Smederevo	15	7	4	4	22	16	25
6	FK Dubocica	15	6	4	5	16	17	22
7	FK Napredak	15	6	4	5	14	15	22
8	Loznica	15	4	8	3	19	21	20
9	FK Vozdovac	15	5	4	6	15	14	19
10	Spartak Subotica	15	5	4	6	24	28	19
11	FK Proleter 023	15	4	6	5	22	17	18
12	Metalac Gornji	15	5	3	7	18	22	18
13	Jedinstvo UB	15	4	2	9	17	25	14
14	Teleoptik	15	3	4	8	18	26	13
15	FK Graficar Beograd	15	3	2	10	18	29	11
16	Bor 1919	15	2	2	11	8	30	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Graficar Beograd	FK Napredak
Spartak Subotica	0-2 L	0-1 L
Jedinstvo UB	1-3 L	2-1 W
Javor Ivanjica	1-1 D	0-3 L
OFK Vrsac	1-4 L	1-2 L
Borac Cacak	1-2 L	0-0 D
FK Dubocica	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Napredak (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Graficar Beograd

LLLWLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
11/10	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
05/10	FK Backa Topola Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	4	7	L
28/09	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	3-1	4-1	5	2	W
21/09	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
17/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
12/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	1-4	1-4	2	4	L
05/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
31/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-4	6	6	L

FK Napredak

LWLLLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
17/10	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
11/10	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
05/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
29/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
21/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	6	7	L
16/09	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
11/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Napredak?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Napredak win (39%). Probabilities: FK Graficar Beograd 32%, draw 29%, FK Napredak 39%.

How many goals are expected in FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Napredak?

The model expects 2.42 goals (FK Graficar Beograd 1.13 · FK Napredak 1.28), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Graficar Beograd vs FK Napredak?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.