Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 01/11, 13:00

Prediction: OFK Vrsac vs FK Backa Topola

Team pages: OFK Vrsac · FK Backa Topola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

OFK Vrsac1.08

FK Backa Topola1.58

1X2

25% 27% 48%

OFK Vrsac Draw FK Backa Topola

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Vrsac 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLDLWD

FK Backa Topola 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDWWWW

Head-to-head

OFK Vrsac 0–1–1 FK Backa Topola (2 last)

FK Backa Topola1-0OFK Vrsac
OFK Vrsac1-1FK Backa Topola

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Vrsac 1474 · FK Backa Topola 1600

	OFK Vrsac	Draw	FK Backa Topola
Our model	25%	28%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Backa Topola (rating 1474 vs 1600).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Vrsac	FK Backa Topola
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	2.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	1.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +42’	3.50	3.50	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Vrsac 0–1–1 FK Backa Topola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Backa Topola	1-0 HT 0-0	OFK Vrsac
30/10/24 Serbia Cup	OFK Vrsac	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Backa Topola

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Backa Topola	15	9	6	0	35	16	33
2	Javor Ivanjica	15	8	6	1	35	16	30
3	Borac Cacak	15	9	3	3	27	20	30
4	OFK Vrsac	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
5	Smederevo	15	7	4	4	22	16	25
6	FK Dubocica	15	6	4	5	16	17	22
7	FK Napredak	15	6	4	5	14	15	22
8	Loznica	15	4	8	3	19	21	20
9	FK Vozdovac	15	5	4	6	15	14	19
10	Spartak Subotica	15	5	4	6	24	28	19
11	FK Proleter 023	15	4	6	5	22	17	18
12	Metalac Gornji	15	5	3	7	18	22	18
13	Jedinstvo UB	15	4	2	9	17	25	14
14	Teleoptik	15	3	4	8	18	26	13
15	FK Graficar Beograd	15	3	2	10	18	29	11
16	Bor 1919	15	2	2	11	8	30	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFK Vrsac	FK Backa Topola
Loznica	1-1 D	4-0 W
Teleoptik	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Vozdovac	0-2 L	3-2 W
Metalac Gornji	0-0 D	5-1 W
Smederevo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Bor 1919	1-0 W	4-1 W
FK Graficar Beograd	4-1 W	4-1 W
Borac Cacak	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Backa Topola (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFK Vrsac

LLWWWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/10	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
04/10	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/09	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
21/09	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
16/09	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	4-1	4-1	1	4	W
05/09	Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
30/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	10	6	L

FK Backa Topola

DWWDDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
17/10	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	5-1	3	4	W
11/10	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	4-1	4	3	W
05/10	FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
26/09	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
21/09	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
16/09	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/09	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	9	6	W
07/09	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
30/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	8	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Vrsac vs FK Backa Topola?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Backa Topola win (48%). Probabilities: OFK Vrsac 25%, draw 27%, FK Backa Topola 48%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Vrsac vs FK Backa Topola?

The model expects 2.66 goals (OFK Vrsac 1.08 · FK Backa Topola 1.58), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Vrsac vs FK Backa Topola?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.