Football · China Division 2 · 29/07, 13:30

Prediction: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Xiamen Feilu

Team pages: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves · Xiamen Feilu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.85Total

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves0.78

Xiamen Feilu1.07

1X2

26% 32% 42%

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves Draw Xiamen Feilu

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLLWLD

Xiamen Feilu 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLDWDDL

Head-to-head

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 0–1 Xiamen Feilu (1 last)

Xiamen Feilu2-1Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1439 · Xiamen Feilu 1517

	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	Draw	Xiamen Feilu
Our model	25%	34%	40%
Market	27%	31%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 1.85 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Xiamen Feilu (rating 1439 vs 1517).
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	Xiamen Feilu
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X2.90

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +7’	3.30	2.90	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:06	3.30	2.73	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 0–0–1 Xiamen Feilu

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 China Division 2	Xiamen Feilu	2-1 HT 1-0	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	17	11	1	5	26	13	34
2	Shenzhen 2028	18	9	6	3	30	22	33
3	Hubei Istar	17	8	6	3	26	18	30
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	18	6	7	5	17	18	25
5	Xiamen Feilu	17	6	7	4	25	19	25
6	Jiangxi Lushan	17	7	4	6	20	16	25
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	18	5	9	4	18	24	24
8	Guangdong Mingtu	18	4	9	5	19	19	21
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	18	5	5	8	18	23	20
10	Wenzhou FC	17	3	7	7	11	19	16
11	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	18	3	6	9	10	20	15
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	17	1	7	9	10	19	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	Xiamen Feilu
Hubei Istar	1-1 D	0-0 D
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	0-1 L	0-1 L
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	1-0 W	2-0 W
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	0-1 L	1-2 L
Wenzhou FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Shenzhen 2028	1-1 D	0-0 D
Ganzhou Ruishi	0-1 L	0-0 D
Guangdong Mingtu	0-1 L	2-1 W
Jiangxi Lushan	1-2 L	2-0 W
Guangzhou Dandelion	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Xiamen Feilu (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

DLLLDLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-1	1-1	9	1	D
19/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
04/07	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
28/06	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
24/06	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
20/06	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
14/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
27/05	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
23/05	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-1	1-2	2	1	L
09/05	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Xiamen Feilu

WWWLLDWDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
05/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
27/06	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
23/06	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
19/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
13/06	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
27/05	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
23/05	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	3-1	1	3	W
10/05	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Xiamen Feilu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Xiamen Feilu win (42%). Probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 26%, draw 32%, Xiamen Feilu 42%.

How many goals are expected in Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Xiamen Feilu?

The model expects 1.85 goals (Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 0.78 · Xiamen Feilu 1.07), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Xiamen Feilu?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.