Football · Chile Segunda · 29/08, 22:00

Prediction: AC Colina vs Lota Schwager

Team pages: AC Colina · Lota Schwager

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

AC Colina1.27

Lota Schwager1.28

1X2

35% 28% 36%

AC Colina Draw Lota Schwager

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Colina 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLWLL

Lota Schwager 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWDWLD

Head-to-head

AC Colina 2–0 Lota Schwager (2 last)

AC Colina2-1Lota Schwager
Lota Schwager0-1AC Colina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Colina 1469 · Lota Schwager 1490

	AC Colina	Draw	Lota Schwager
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	36%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AC Colina: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Colina	Lota Schwager
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	6.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.52
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:58 +29’	2.50	3.25	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:26	2.52	3.16	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Colina 2–0–0 Lota Schwager

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/25 Chile Tercera	AC Colina	2-1 HT 1-0	Lota Schwager
28/06/25 Chile Tercera	Lota Schwager	0-1 HT 0-0	AC Colina

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Rengo Unido	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
2	Santiago Morning	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
3	Lota Schwager	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
4	General Velásquez	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
5	Real Juventud San Joaquin	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
6	Provincial Ovalle	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
7	AC Colina	2	0	0	2	1	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Colina	Lota Schwager
Santiago Morning	1-2 L	1-1 D
CD Rengo Unido	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lota Schwager (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Colina

WWLLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
08/08	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
12/07	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	2-0	5-1	5	2	W
04/07	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
27/06	Concon National Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
21/06	Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
06/06	Santiago City Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
31/05	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
10/05	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
02/05	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	0-0	2-0	6	4	W

Lota Schwager

LDWDLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
08/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	2-1	3-1	6	7	W
12/07	Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda	0-0	2-2	10	7	D
05/07	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-0	2-0	2	10	W
28/06	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
21/06	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	2	8	D
14/06	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/06	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
30/05	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	0-2	0-2	11	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Colina vs Lota Schwager?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lota Schwager win (36%). Probabilities: AC Colina 35%, draw 28%, Lota Schwager 36%.

How many goals are expected in AC Colina vs Lota Schwager?

The model expects 2.55 goals (AC Colina 1.27 · Lota Schwager 1.28), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Colina vs Lota Schwager?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.