Football · Chile Segunda · 05/09, 21:30

Prediction: Santiago City vs Concon National

Team pages: Santiago City · Concon National

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Santiago City1.59

Concon National1.4

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Santiago City Draw Concon National

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Santiago City 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWLWD

Concon National 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Santiago City 3–1–2 Concon National (6 last)

Concon National4-2Santiago City
Santiago City1-1Concon National
Santiago City4-2Concon National
Concon National5-0Santiago City
Santiago City5-2Concon National
Concon National1-5Santiago City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santiago City 1529 · Concon National 1532

	Santiago City	Draw	Concon National
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santiago City: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santiago City	Concon National
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.7	5.7 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.37 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +11’	2.20	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:56	2.37	3.36	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santiago City 3–1–2 Concon National

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Chile Segunda	Concon National	4-2 HT 1-2	Santiago City
09/05/26 Chile Segunda	Santiago City	1-1 HT 0-1	Concon National
07/09/25 Chile Segunda	Santiago City	4-2 HT 2-0	Concon National
13/04/25 Chile Segunda	Concon National	5-0 HT 2-0	Santiago City
22/09/23 Chile Tercera	Santiago City	5-2 HT 1-0	Concon National
30/07/23 Chile Tercera	Concon National	1-5 HT 1-3	Santiago City

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportes Linares	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
2	Concon National	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
3	CD Trasandino de Los Andes	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
4	Santiago City	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Provincial Osorno	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
6	Brujas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
7	Colchagua CD	3	0	1	2	0	2	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santiago City	Concon National
Deportes Linares	1-1 D	3-1 W
Provincial Ovalle	3-2 W	1-0 W
CD Trasandino de Los Andes	1-5 L	1-3 L
AC Colina	1-0 W	1-1 D
Brujas de Salamanca	0-0 D	2-0 W
Real Juventud San Joaquin	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Concon National (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santiago City

WDDDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
09/08	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/07	Concon National Chile Segunda	2-1	2-4	2	3	L
26/06	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	1-2	3-2	8	7	W
20/06	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	1-3	1-5	8	4	L
06/06	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
31/05	Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
25/05	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
09/05	Concon National Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
27/04	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

Concon National

WWWDLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
22/08	Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
16/08	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	1-0	1-3	6	9	L
08/08	Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
11/07	Santiago City Chile Segunda	1-2	4-2	7	3	W
05/07	Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
27/06	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
07/06	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
30/05	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	2-0	4-1	4	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santiago City vs Concon National?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santiago City win (41%). Probabilities: Santiago City 41%, draw 26%, Concon National 33%.

How many goals are expected in Santiago City vs Concon National?

The model expects 3 goals (Santiago City 1.59 · Concon National 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Santiago City vs Concon National?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.