Football · Chile Segunda · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Provincial Ovalle vs CD Rengo Unido

Team pages: Provincial Ovalle · CD Rengo Unido

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Provincial Ovalle1.58

CD Rengo Unido1.09

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Provincial Ovalle Draw CD Rengo Unido

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Provincial Ovalle 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLDDWW

CD Rengo Unido 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWWDWD

Head-to-head

Provincial Ovalle 3–1–2 CD Rengo Unido (6 last)

Provincial Ovalle2-1CD Rengo Unido
CD Rengo Unido1-1Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle2-1CD Rengo Unido
CD Rengo Unido1-0Provincial Ovalle
CD Rengo Unido3-1Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle5-1CD Rengo Unido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Provincial Ovalle 1488 · CD Rengo Unido 1515

	Provincial Ovalle	Draw	CD Rengo Unido
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Provincial Ovalle: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Provincial Ovalle	CD Rengo Unido
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.2	1.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 13:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.88
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.49 ★
2	2.63 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +8’	2.30	3.20	2.63
22:38 +13’	2.10▼	3.20	2.90▲
05:27 +12’	1.90▼	3.40▲	3.40▲
13:16 +16’	1.85▼	3.30▼	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:19 +33’	1.93	3.47	3.28
10:03 +26’	1.93▲	3.50▲	3.31▲
11:34 +118’	1.87▼	3.55▲	3.46▲
13:37 +188’	1.88▲	3.49▼	3.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Provincial Ovalle 3–1–2 CD Rengo Unido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/25 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	2-1 HT 1-1	CD Rengo Unido
04/03/25 Chile Segunda	CD Rengo Unido	1-1 HT 1-1	Provincial Ovalle
19/10/24 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	2-1 HT 1-0	CD Rengo Unido
25/05/24 Chile Segunda	CD Rengo Unido	1-0 HT 1-0	Provincial Ovalle
19/11/22 Chile Tercera	CD Rengo Unido	3-1 HT 2-1	Provincial Ovalle
01/10/22 Chile Tercera	Provincial Ovalle	5-1 HT 4-0	CD Rengo Unido

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Rengo Unido	5	3	2	0	10	5	11
2	Santiago Morning	6	1	5	0	7	6	8
3	Provincial Ovalle	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
4	General Velásquez	5	1	3	1	4	5	6
5	Lota Schwager	5	1	2	2	5	5	5
6	AC Colina	5	1	1	3	2	4	4
7	Real Juventud San Joaquin	5	0	3	2	6	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Provincial Ovalle	CD Rengo Unido
Lota Schwager	2-1 W	1-0 W
AC Colina	1-0 W	1-0 W
Santiago Morning	0-0 D	2-2 D
Real Juventud San Joaquin	1-1 D	5-2 W
General Velásquez	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Rengo Unido (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Provincial Ovalle

LDLLWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	2-0	2-1	12	9	W
07/09	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
30/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
04/07	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
26/06	Santiago City Chile Segunda	2-1	2-3	1	7	L
21/06	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-3	1-6	3	2	L
08/06	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/05	Concon National Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	2	4	L

CD Rengo Unido

DLLWLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	2-0	2-2	9	5	D
31/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	4-1	5-2	5	7	W
22/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
16/08	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
08/08	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
12/07	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
04/07	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-1	3-1	8	6	W
27/06	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/06	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	0-1	1-3	5	7	L
06/06	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Provincial Ovalle vs CD Rengo Unido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Provincial Ovalle win (48%). Probabilities: Provincial Ovalle 48%, draw 27%, CD Rengo Unido 25%.

How many goals are expected in Provincial Ovalle vs CD Rengo Unido?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Provincial Ovalle 1.58 · CD Rengo Unido 1.09), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Provincial Ovalle vs CD Rengo Unido?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.